Western Kentucky (3-1) vs Missouri State (2-2)
September 27, 2025 at 07:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Missouri State +4.5 — Over/Under: +61.5
Western Kentucky and Missouri State meet Saturday in Week 5 college football action from Robert W Plaster Stadium. Here’s a Western Kentucky vs Missouri State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Missouri State Bears pick. We will examine:
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers’ recent form and player performance
The Missouri State Bears’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Hilltoppers
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Bears
Recent betting trends in games played between Western Kentucky and Missouri State
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Missouri State vs Western Kentucky game.
It was a big win for Western Kentucky in the last game and they sit with a 3-1 record overall. The only loss came against Toledo, and in that game the defense gave up 45 points. In the last game against Nevada they got back on the right track and they were able to secure the 31-16 victory. Western Kentucky scored 21 points in the 4th quarter to make the comeback and secure the win. Maverick McIvor completed 22 of his 33 passes for 216 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception. The defense also picked off Chubba Purdy twice, and creating turnovers will be a key again here.
Western Kentucky on the season is averaging 37 points while their defense is giving up 22.75 points per game. The offense is ranked 37th while the defense is ranked 67th in the league. The strength of this team is with the offense.
Missouri State on the season is averaging 21.5 points while their defense is giving up 32.75 points per game. The offense is ranked 104th while the defense is ranked 120th. The offense is averaging two passing touchdowns a game which is 35th in all of college football.
Even on the road, I trust Western Kentucky a little more. This Western Kentucky offense is a lot more talented, and even though Clark has been good for MIssouri State, he’s going to lose the battle here. This Western Kentucky squad is averaging 37 points per game, and they are going to get the offense out to a fast start. At halftime Missouri State is going to keep this game close, but in the third and 4th quarter this game will get out of control. Back Western Kentucky against the spread.
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers’ recent form and player performance
The Missouri State Bears’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Hilltoppers
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Bears
Recent betting trends in games played between Western Kentucky and Missouri State
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Missouri State vs Western Kentucky game.
Big Win for Western Kentucky
It was a big win for Western Kentucky in the last game and they sit with a 3-1 record overall. The only loss came against Toledo, and in that game the defense gave up 45 points. In the last game against Nevada they got back on the right track and they were able to secure the 31-16 victory. Western Kentucky scored 21 points in the 4th quarter to make the comeback and secure the win. Maverick McIvor completed 22 of his 33 passes for 216 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception. The defense also picked off Chubba Purdy twice, and creating turnovers will be a key again here.
Western Kentucky on the season is averaging 37 points while their defense is giving up 22.75 points per game. The offense is ranked 37th while the defense is ranked 67th in the league. The strength of this team is with the offense.
Why the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will win
- Western Kentucky has won each of its last nine September games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Western Kentucky has covered the spread in eight of its last nine September games as a favorite.
What a Win for Missouri State
What a win for Missouri State in the last game, and they now sit with a 2-2 record overall. Two games ago against SMU, they were knocked off 28-10. In the last game, though against UT Martin, Missouri State scored 42 points and they ended up winning by 32 points. Jacob Clark had a huge game, completing 20 of his 28 passes for 271 yards and three touchdowns. Dash Luke was out wide and he caught nine passes for 110 yards and a touchdown. They really need to get the offense out to a fast start, and Clark is going to need to light up the scoreboard again.Missouri State on the season is averaging 21.5 points while their defense is giving up 32.75 points per game. The offense is ranked 104th while the defense is ranked 120th. The offense is averaging two passing touchdowns a game which is 35th in all of college football.
Why the Missouri State Bears will win
- Western Kentucky has lost four of its last five September road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Missouri State has covered the spread in each of its last three games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Western Kentucky vs Missouri State Prediction
Even on the road, I trust Western Kentucky a little more. This Western Kentucky offense is a lot more talented, and even though Clark has been good for MIssouri State, he’s going to lose the battle here. This Western Kentucky squad is averaging 37 points per game, and they are going to get the offense out to a fast start. At halftime Missouri State is going to keep this game close, but in the third and 4th quarter this game will get out of control. Back Western Kentucky against the spread.