| MATCHUP | USC Trojans | TCU Horned Frogs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 9-3 | 8-4 |
| Spread | -6 -108 | +6 -112 |
| Moneyline | -230 | +190 |
| Total | Over 56.5 (-108) | Under 56.5 (-112) |
| Where | Alamodome, San Antonio, TX | |
| When | Tuesday, December 30, 2025 | |
| Time | 09:00 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN | |
USC Trojans Betting Preview
The USC Trojans beat UCLA and lost to Oregon. The USC Trojans have won 9 of their last 12 games. Jayden Maiava is completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 3,431 yards, 23 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Makai Lemon and Jacobi Lane have combined for 1,901 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns, while Lake McRee has 30 receptions.
The USC Trojans ground game is averaging 174.3 yards per contest, and King Miller leads the way with 873 yards and 7 touchdowns. Defensively, USC is allowing 22.4 points and 348.8 yards per game. Desman Stephens II leads the USC Trojans with 83 tackles, Braylan Shelby has 4.5 sacks and Bishop Fitzgerald has 5 interceptions.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview
The TCU Horned Frogs beat Houston and Cincinnati. The TCU Horned Frogs have won 5 of their last 8 games. Josh Hoover is completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 3,472 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. Eric McAlistar and Jordan Dwyer have combined for 1,851 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns, while Joseph Manjack IV has 41 receptions.
The TCU Horned Frogs ground game is averaging 128 yards per contest, and Jeremy Payne leads the way with 550 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, TCU is allowing 26.3 points and 383.1 yards per game. Kaleb Elarms-Orr leads the TCU Horned Frogs with 119 tackles, Devean Deal has 3.5 sacks and Jamel Johnson has 4 interceptions.
Why the TCU Horned Frogs will win
- TCU has won eight of its last nine games against non-conference opponents.
- USC has lost three of its last four Bowl games as a favorite.
- USC has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five Bowl games as a favorite.
- The underdog has covered the spread in each of USC’s last four Bowl games.
Why the USC Trojans will win
- USC has won 23 of its last 24 games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
- TCU has lost three of its last four games against AP-ranked teams at neutral venues.
- USC has covered the spread in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
- TCU has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Each of USC’s last four Bowl games have gone OVER the total points line
- Four of TCU’s last five games against AP-ranked teams at neutral venues have gone OVER the total points line.
TCU Horned Frogs Player Prop Facts
- Heading into the bowl games, Josh Hoover ranks 6th amongst FBS players for passing touchdowns (29) this season.
USC Trojans Player Prop Facts
- Heading into the bowl games, Bishop Fitzgerald ranks T6th amongst FBS players for interceptions (5) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- TCU ranks 19th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (46.8).
- TCU ranks T23rd among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (3.3).
- USC ranks 7th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (19.1).
- USC ranks 7th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (297.3).
USC vs TCU Prediction
TCU will be down its starting quarterback, star defensive end in Paul Oyewale, and has coaching changes. However, it looks like USC could be without star receivers in Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon. I also question the motivation for USC, as the Trojans were thinking playoffs this year, and this is a bit of a letdown. While USC fans travel well, this is a home game for TCU, as the Alamodome is just a four-hour car ride from campus. Even with a switch at quarterback, TCU has above average offensive ability at the skill positions. USC has failed to cover 7 of its last 10 games. I’ll take my chances with the points.