UCF vs Texas Tech Prediction 11/15/2025 Today’s College Football Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Nov 8, 2025; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Behren Morton (2) hands the ball to running back J’Koby Williams (20) in the first half Brigham Young Cougars at Jones AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
UCF Golden Knights
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Team Records
4-5
9-1
Spread
+23.5 -108
-23.5 -112
Moneyline
+1200
-2400
Total
Over 48.5 (-108)
Under 48.5 (-112)
Where
Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX
When
Saturday, November 15, 2025
Time
03:30 PM EST
TV
FOX
The UCF Knights and the Texas Tech Red Raiders meet in week 12 college football action from Jones AT&T Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a UCF Knights vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders prediction.
UCF Knights Recap
The UCF Knights come into this game looking to bounce back from a 30-27 loss at the hands of Houston last time out to sit at 4-5 this season. After this game, UCF will head home for a game against Oklahoma State.
UCF Lose 5 Of Last 6
Tayven Jackson has thrown for 1,470 yards, 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 61.8% passing while Cam Fancher’s thrown for 333 yards on 56.9% passing. Myles Montgomery leads UCF in rushing with 595 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns and Jaden Nixon has 485 rushing yards with 7 touchdowns this season. Duane Thomas Jr. leads the Knights’ receiving group with 40 grabs for 402 yards while Dylan Wade has 29 catches for 302 yards and a touchdown. DJ Black has 187 receiving yards with 2 TDs while five more Knights have 100+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Lewis Carter leads the Knights with 63 total tackles while Malachi Lawrence has a team-high 7 sacks and Phillip Dunham has a team-high 3 interceptions this season. As a unit, UCF’s defense has combined for 21 sacks and 8 interceptions so far this season.
Texas Tech Red Raiders Recap
The Texas Tech Red Raiders come into this game looking to build on their 29-7 win over BYU last time out to sit at 9-1 this season. After this game, Texas Tech will have a bye before closing out the regular season at West Virginia.
Red Raiders Win 3 Straight
Behren Morton has thrown for 1,969 yards, 16 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 65.7% passing while Will Hammond has thrown for 680 yards, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions so far this season. Cameron Dickey leads the Red Raiders in rushing with 867 rushing yards and 11 TDs and J’Koby Williams has 602 rushing yards and 5 TDs. Hammond also has 299 rushing yards with 5 TDs and Adam Hill has 212 rushing yards as well on the year. Caleb Douglas leads Texas Tech with 43 catches for 606 yards and 5 touchdowns while Coy Eakin has 512 receiving yards and 4 TDs. Reggie Virgil has 489 receiving yards, 40 catches and 5 touchdowns while Terrance Carter Jr. has 419 receiving yards and 5 TDs. On defense, Jacob Rodriguez leads the Red Raiders in tackles with 88 including 48 solo tackles and 3 interceptions while Brice Pollock has a team-high 4 interceptions and David Bailey has a team-high 11.5 sacks. As a unit, Texas Tech’s defense has combined for 29 sacks and 11 interceptions so far this season.
Texas Tech has won each of its last 10 November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
UCF has lost each of its last seven road games.
The favorite has covered the spread in each of Texas Tech’s last eight games at Jones AT&T Stadium.
UCF has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games in November.
Texas Tech has won the first quarter in each of its last five home games against conference opponents.
Texas Tech has won the first half in nine of its last 10 games against conference opponents.
Why the UCF Knights will win
UCF has won four of its last five November games against AP-ranked teams.
UCF has covered the spread in each of its last four November games against AP-ranked teams.
The team ranked 8th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in 11 of its last 14 games.
Total Points Facts
Five of Texas Tech’s last six November games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Four of UCF’s last five road games against AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Texas Tech Red Raiders Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 12, David Bailey ranks 1st amongst FBS players for sacks (11.5) this season.
UCF Knights Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 12, Cameron Fancher has the most pass attempts without a passing touchdown this season (72).
Matchup/League Facts
Texas Tech has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 10+ points of any FBS team this season (6).
Texas Tech has recorded the most home wins by a margin of 15+ points of any FBS team this season (6).
UCF ranks T10th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (2.3).
UCF ranks 12th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (168.2).
UCF Knights vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction
I’m on Texas Tech here. I wonder at what point the Red Raiders prioritize health to focus on being in peak condition for the Big 12 title game, but they do have a bye week next week so I expect a full effort here as a win pretty much clinches the spot or at least goes a long way towards it. UCF just has QB issues and I expect this Texas Tech defense to feast on the Knights in this matchup. Give me Texas Tech here.
