UCF vs Cincinnati Prediction 10/11/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

David Racey

6 hours ago

Oct 4, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights quarterback Tayven Jackson (2) warms up before the game against the Kansas Jayhawks at FBC Mortgage Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images

UCF (3-2) vs Cincinnati (4-1)

October 11, 2025 at 12:00 PM EDT

The Line: Betting Odds: Cincinnati -11.5 — Over/Under: +54

In this article we will formulate a UCF vs Cincinnati prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 11th at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 7 matchup.

UCF Knights Betting Preview

The UCF Knights are 3-2 (0-2) this year after they lost to Kansas by a score of 27-20 last week. UCF led 14-0 in the second quarter and 20-14 at halftime, but they went scoreless in the second half for the loss. The Knights out gained Kansas by a total of 375-358, went 4-16 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 1-0 in the game. Tayven Jackson went 14-23 for 97 yards, while Myles Montgomery rushed 22 times for 110 yards and two scores. Duane Thomas Jr. led the receivers with five receptions for 42 yards in the game. The UCF defense recorded one sack and two tackles for loss in the defeat.

Prior to that loss, UCF lost to Kansas State, but did start the season with wins over North Carolina, NC A&T, and Jacksonville State. The Knights are averaging 31.8 points per game with 222.8 passing yards and 202.2 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 17.4 points against per game this season. Tayven Jackson has completed 64.5% of his passes for 906 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, while Duane Thomas Jr has 21 receptions for 245 yards. Myles Montgomery has led the UCF ground game with 378 yards and three scores this year.

Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Bearcats are 4-1 (2-0) this season after they defeated Iowa State by a score of 38-30 last week. Cincinnati led 31-15 at halftime and they managed to get the win, despite only scoring seven points in the second half. The Bearcats out gained ISU by a total of 474-470, went 4-11 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 1-0 in the game. Brendan Sorsby went 13-25 for 214 yards and two touchdowns, while Evan Pryor rushed 10 times for 111 yards and two scores. Caleb Goodie led the receivers with two receptions for 83 yards and one touchdown in the win. The Cincy defense recorded three sacks and four tackles for loss in the victory.

Prior to that win, the Bearcats defeated Kansas, Northwestern State, and Bowling Green, but did lose their first game against Nebraska before that. Cincinnati is averaging 41.6 points per game with 273.2 passing yards and 205.2 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 20.8 points against per game this season. Brendan Sorsby has completed 65.9% of his passes for 1,257 yards, 12 touchdowns, and one interception, while Caleb Goodie has 15 receptions for 334 yards and two touchdowns. Tawee Walker is the leading rusher for Cincinnati with 313 yards and three scores this season.

Why the Cincinnati Bearcats will win

UCF has lost each of its last six October games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Cincinnati has won each of its last four games.
UCF has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games against conference opponents.
Cincinnati has covered the spread in four of its last five games.

Total Points Facts

Each of Cincinnati’s last four games have gone OVER the total points line.
Four of UCF’s last five road games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

Cincinnati ranks 3rd among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (13.8).
Cincinnati ranks 3rd among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+12.4).
UCF ranks 6th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+9.0).
UCF ranks 15th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (150.8).