UCF (4-3) vs Baylor (4-4)
November 1, 2025 at 12:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Baylor -4.5 — Over/Under: +58.5
The Central Florida Knights and the Baylor Bears meet Saturday in college football action from McLane Stadium. Here’s a Central Florida vs Baylor prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Central Florida vs Baylor pick. We will examine:
The Central Florida Knights recent form and player performance
The Baylor Bears recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Central Florida Knights
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Baylor Bears
Recent betting trends in games played between Central Florida and Baylor
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Central Florida vs Baylor game
This year the Knights opened up with three straight victories to kick things off. Those wins came versus Jacksonville State, North Carolina A&T and North Carolina in succession. The next three games were all losses however, as the Knights fell versus Kansas State, Kansas and Cincinnati. In the 20-11 defeat on the road versus the Bearcats, the Knights mustered 413 total yards, 26 first downs and 7-of-18 on third-down tries. The 10 penalties for 75 yards certainly hurt UCF’s chances at getting a road win, though.
In their latest outing versus West Virginia back on October 18, the Knights scored 14 points in the first quarter and 21 more in the third during a 45-13 win. UCF’s Tayven Jackson logged a 23-of-34 line for 277 yards, two scores and a pick, while Jaden Nixon topped the rushers on 116 yards and a pair of TDs off seven totes. Chris Domercant had five catches for 89 yards and two touchdowns as the team’s leading receiver in the blowout win.
Over on the Bears’ side, they opened up the season on a 2-2 run. The wins in that time were over SMU and Samford while the losses came courtesy of Auburn and Arizona State. The Bears won a couple after that versus Oklahoma State and Kansas State, then took an October 18 loss to TCU. In that matchup the Bears gave up 21 points in the second quarter alone. Baylor ended up surrendering 427 yards on defense alongside 21 first downs, 231 passing yards and 6.2 yards per play in the losing effort.
Matched up against Cincinnati last weekend, the Bears gave up a couple of first-quarter touchdowns and were trailing 24-6 by the break. Baylor did better in the second but ended up losing 41-20 in the end on the road. QB Sawyer Robertson had an 18-of-26 line for 137 yards and two touchdowns (with one more on the ground) while Michael Turner carried 14 times for 90 yards. Josh Cameron added four catches for 34 yards and a score of his own in the loss.
Sawyer Robertson has thrown two or more touchdown passes in 12 consecutive games – longest streak in the FBS.
UCF Knights Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 10, Duane Thomas Jr. leads UCF for receptions (30) this season.
Baylor ranks 5th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (318.4).
Baylor ranks 6th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (200).
UCF ranks 7th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+7.4).
UCF ranks T13th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (3.7).
I’m staying with UCF. The Knights are coming off a dominant effort at home against a struggling West Virginia Team. Central Florida had two picks and went just 5-of-16 on third-down conversion attempts, but also gained 578 yards, 323 passing yards and 7.7 yards per play. The defense held the Mountaineers to just 210 total yards and 4-of-18 on third downs in a nice overall effort. That gives UCF a nice bounce-back after failing to eclipse 20 points in three straight games prior to that effort.
As for Baylor, they had some trouble with a good Cincinnati team on the road last weekend, posting just 266 total yards, 17 first downs, two lost fumbles and a 4-of-12 success rate on third-down conversions. The defense had their moments but also gave up 265 rush yards and didn’t get any takeaways. Baylor has 20 or more points in every game this year but they’re simply giving up too much on the other side.
The Central Florida Knights recent form and player performance
The Baylor Bears recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Central Florida Knights
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Baylor Bears
Recent betting trends in games played between Central Florida and Baylor
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Central Florida vs Baylor game
Central Florida Knights Betting Preview
This year the Knights opened up with three straight victories to kick things off. Those wins came versus Jacksonville State, North Carolina A&T and North Carolina in succession. The next three games were all losses however, as the Knights fell versus Kansas State, Kansas and Cincinnati. In the 20-11 defeat on the road versus the Bearcats, the Knights mustered 413 total yards, 26 first downs and 7-of-18 on third-down tries. The 10 penalties for 75 yards certainly hurt UCF’s chances at getting a road win, though.
In their latest outing versus West Virginia back on October 18, the Knights scored 14 points in the first quarter and 21 more in the third during a 45-13 win. UCF’s Tayven Jackson logged a 23-of-34 line for 277 yards, two scores and a pick, while Jaden Nixon topped the rushers on 116 yards and a pair of TDs off seven totes. Chris Domercant had five catches for 89 yards and two touchdowns as the team’s leading receiver in the blowout win.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
Over on the Bears’ side, they opened up the season on a 2-2 run. The wins in that time were over SMU and Samford while the losses came courtesy of Auburn and Arizona State. The Bears won a couple after that versus Oklahoma State and Kansas State, then took an October 18 loss to TCU. In that matchup the Bears gave up 21 points in the second quarter alone. Baylor ended up surrendering 427 yards on defense alongside 21 first downs, 231 passing yards and 6.2 yards per play in the losing effort.
Matched up against Cincinnati last weekend, the Bears gave up a couple of first-quarter touchdowns and were trailing 24-6 by the break. Baylor did better in the second but ended up losing 41-20 in the end on the road. QB Sawyer Robertson had an 18-of-26 line for 137 yards and two touchdowns (with one more on the ground) while Michael Turner carried 14 times for 90 yards. Josh Cameron added four catches for 34 yards and a score of his own in the loss.
UCF Knights @ Baylor Bears Betting Trends: Week 10
Baylor Bears Player Prop Facts
Sawyer Robertson has thrown two or more touchdown passes in 12 consecutive games – longest streak in the FBS.
UCF Knights Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 10, Duane Thomas Jr. leads UCF for receptions (30) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Baylor ranks 5th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (318.4).
Baylor ranks 6th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (200).
UCF ranks 7th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+7.4).
UCF ranks T13th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (3.7).
Central Florida vs Baylor Prediction
I’m staying with UCF. The Knights are coming off a dominant effort at home against a struggling West Virginia Team. Central Florida had two picks and went just 5-of-16 on third-down conversion attempts, but also gained 578 yards, 323 passing yards and 7.7 yards per play. The defense held the Mountaineers to just 210 total yards and 4-of-18 on third downs in a nice overall effort. That gives UCF a nice bounce-back after failing to eclipse 20 points in three straight games prior to that effort.
As for Baylor, they had some trouble with a good Cincinnati team on the road last weekend, posting just 266 total yards, 17 first downs, two lost fumbles and a 4-of-12 success rate on third-down conversions. The defense had their moments but also gave up 265 rush yards and didn’t get any takeaways. Baylor has 20 or more points in every game this year but they’re simply giving up too much on the other side.