Toledo vs Louisville Prediction 12/23/2025 Today’s College Football Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Nov 29, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals quarterback Miller Moss (7) attempts to pass against the Kentucky Wildcats during the first half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Louisville defeated Kentucky 41-0. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Toledo Rockets
Louisville Cardinals
Team Records
8-4
8-4
Spread
+9.5 -112
-9.5 -108
Moneyline
+270
-340
Total
Over 43.5 (-112)
Under 43.5 (-108)
Where
Flagler Credit Union Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
When
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Time
02:00 PM EST
TV
ESPN
The Toledo Rockets and the Louisville Cardinals meet in the Boca Raton Bowl in college football action from Flagler Credit Union Stadium on Tuesday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Toledo Rockets vs. Louisville Cardinals prediction.
Toledo Rockets Recap
The Toledo Rockets come into this game on behalf of the MAC after finishing with an 8-4 mark overall this season, culminating with a 21-3 win over Central Michigan in their season finale.
Rockets Looking For Third Bowl Win In Last Four
Tucker Gleason has thrown for 2,515 yards, 21 touchdowns and 9 interceptions on 64.7% passing while Chip Trayanum has a team-high 950 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns this season. Kenji Christian has 501 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns while Junior Vandeross III has a team-high 75 catches for 947 yards and 11 touchdowns as well this season. Trayvon Rudolph has 423 receiving yards while seven more Rockets have 100+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, K’Von Sherman has a team-high 85 total tackles along with 50 solo tackles while Malachi Davis has a team-high 5.5 sacks, as does Martez Poynter. Braden Awls also has a team-high 5 interceptions so far this season. As a unit, Toledo has combined for 36 sacks and 13 interceptions so far this season.
Louisville Cardinals Recap
The Louisville Cardinals come into the bowl game repping the ACC with an 8-4 record this season thanks to a 41-0 win over Kentucky in their finale.
Cardinals Also Looking For Third Bowl Win In Last Four Tries
Miller Moss leads Louisville in passing with 2,526 yards, 14 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 64% passing while Isaac Brown has a team-high 782 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns and Keyjuan Brown has 592 rushing yards with 6 TDs. Chris Bell leads Louisville’s receiving group with 72 grabs for 917 yards and 6 touchdowns while Caullin Lacy has 54 catches for 547 yards and 2 TDs. On defense, TJ Quinn has a team-high 87 total tackles while Antonio Watts has a team-high 3 INTs and Clev Lubin has a team-high 7 sacks while Wesley Bailey has 6 sacks. As a unit, Louisville’s defense has combined for 27 sacks and 14 interceptions so far this season.
Louisville has won each of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
Louisville has covered the spread in each of its last four games in Florida.
Louisville has won the first half in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
Louisville has won the first quarter in five of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
Why the Toledo Rockets will win
Toledo has won three of its last four games as an underdog.
Louisville has lost three of its last four December games as a favorite.
Toledo has covered the spread in each of its last seven games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
Louisville has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games as a favorite.
Toledo has won the first half in eight of its last 10 games against non-conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
Five of Louisville’s last six December games as a favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.
Four of Toledo’s last five games at neutral venues have gone UNDER the total points line.
Louisville Cardinals Player Prop Facts
Heading into the bowl games, Isaac Brown ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Yards Per Carry (8.6) this season.
Toledo Rockets Player Prop Facts
Heading into the bowl games, Braden Awls ranks T6th amongst FBS players for interceptions (5) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Louisville ranks T9th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (36.0).
Louisville ranks 10th among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (200).
Toledo has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 35+ points of any FBS team this season (4).
Toledo ranks 1st among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (1.3).
Toledo Rockets vs. Louisville Cardinals Prediction
I’m on the under here. Toledo has a lot of changes being made, like starting a backup QB and their coach is off to UConn so we’re seeing a lot of new faces calling plays for the Rockets in this game. On the other side, Louisville didn’t look great down the stretch and the Cardinals are playing through a ton of injuries on their side as well, and I think this ends up being a lower scoring game. Give me the under.
