Texas State (3-1) vs Arkansas State (1-4)
October 4, 2025 at 04:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Arkansas State +13 — Over/Under: +63.5
In this article we will formulate a Texas State vs Arkansas State prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 4th at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 6 matchup.
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview
The Texas State Bobcats are 3-1 (0-0) this year after they defeated Nicholls by a score of 35-3 in their last game. Texas State led 28-3 at halftime and took their foot off of the gas pedal in the second half in the easy victory. The Bobcats out gained Nicholls by a total of 401-224, went 11-14 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at one in the game. Brad Jackson went 13-20 for 180 yards, while Lincoln Pare rushed 15 times for 64 yards and one score. Kylen Evans led the receivers with four catches for 88 yards in the win. The Texas State defense recorded one sack and five tackles for loss in the game.
In their first three games, Texas State defeated Eastern Michigan and UTSA, but lost to Arizona State by a score of 34-15 in their third game. The Bobcats are averaging 36.3 points per game with 219.5 passing yards and 221.5 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 25.0 points against per game this season. Brad Jackson has completed 66.7% of his passes for 864 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception, while Beau Sparks has 28 receptions for 370 yards and five scores. Lincoln Pare is the Bobcats leading rusher with 61 carries for 363 yards and three touchdowns this year.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview
The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 1-4 (0-1) this season after they lost to UL-Monroe by a score of 28-16 last week. Arkansas State led 10-0 after the first quarter, but they only managed six points in the rest of the game for the loss. The Red Wolves were out gained by a total of 384-297, went 3-15 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 2-1 in the game. Jaylen Raynor went 30-47 for 285 yards and one interception, while Devin Spencer rushed seven times for 23 yards. Chauncy Cobb led the receivers with eight catches for 126 yards in the loss. The Red Wolves defense recorded zero sacks and four tackles for loss in the game.
In their first four games, Arkansas State defeated SE Missouri State, but lost to Arkansas, Iowa State, and Kennesaw State after that. The Red Wolves are averaging 20.6 points per game with 242.6 passing yards and 113.8 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 32.0 points against per game this season. Jaylen Raynor has completed 64.9% of his passes for 1,206 yards, six touchdowns, and four interceptions, while Chauncy Cobb has caught 27 passes for 367 yards. The Arkansas State ground game has been led by Devin Spencer, who has 39 carries for 188 yards and one score this season.
Why Texas State will beat Arkansas State
Texas State has won five of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Arkansas State has lost each of its last three games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Arkansas State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five October games at Centennial Bank Stadium.
Texas State has covered the spread in three of its last four games as a road favorite.
Total Points Facts
Each of Texas State’s last nine October games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Five of Arkansas State’s last six October games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
Arkansas State ranks 132nd among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (-8.2).
Arkansas State ranks 128th among FBS teams for yards allowed per game this season (467.0).
Texas State ranks T18th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (75.0).
Texas State ranks 19th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (221.5).
Texas State vs Arkansas State Prediction
Arkansas State has not found much success to start this season and they are coming off of an ugly loss to UL-Monroe last week. The Red Wolves have a decent quarterback, but that hasn’t translated to offensive success. Texas State does have a powerful offense, as they have scored at least 35 points in all three of their wins. I do think we will see plenty of points in this game, but Arkansas State hasn’t showed me much to believe in. Take Texas State to cover on the road.
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