Tennessee vs Illinois Prediction 12/30/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

Andrew Jett

4 hours ago

Oct 11, 2025; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers cheerleaders perform during the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Tennessee Volunteers	Illinois Fighting Illini
Team Records	8-4	8-4
Spread	-2.5 -112	+2.5 -108
Moneyline	-135	+114
Total	Over 61.5 (-110)	Under 61.5 (-110)
When	Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Time	05:30 PM EST
TV	ESPN

The Tennessee Volunteers and the Illinois Fighting Illini meet Tuesday in Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl college football action from Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Here’s a Tennessee vs Illinois prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Tennessee vs Illinois pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Tennessee Volunteers Betting Preview

The Volunteers went 5-1 over their first six games this year, beating Syracuse, East Tennessee State, UAB, Mississippi State and Arkansas in that time. Tennessee closed on a 3-3 run with wins over Kentucky, New Mexico State and Florida, taking losses otherwise versus Alabama, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. That would give the Vols an 8-4 overall record on the season.

In the Vanderbilt game back on November 29, the Volunteers kept pace in the first half but ended up surrendering double-digit points in each of the final three quarters in a 45-24 loss. QB Joey Aguilar was 29-of-44 for 299 yards and a TD, while DeSean Bishop had 97 yards and two scores off 20 carries. Chris Brazzell had 91 yards and a score on six receptions as well.

Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview

Over on the Illinois side, they were also 5-1 in the first six games with wins over Western Illinois, Duke, Western Michigan, USC and Purdue. Similarly the Illini closed on a 3-3 stretch with wins over Rutgers, Maryland and Northwestern mixed with losses to Ohio State, Washington and Wisconsin. Illinois also has an 8-4 overall record at this point on the year.

Matched up against Northwestern on November 29, the Illini were up by four points at the break. Illinois hit a couple of field goals in the second half and won the game 20-13. QB Luke Altmyer was 10-of-15 for 13 yards and Ca’Lil Valentine had 14 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown. Collin Dixon caught two balls for 53 yards in the winning effort.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Trends: Bowl

Why the Illinois Fighting Illini will win

Illinois has won nine of its last 10 games against non-conference opponents.
Tennessee has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games as a favorite in Tennessee.
Illinois has covered the spread in six of its last seven games against non-conference opponents.

Why the Tennessee Volunteers will win

Tennessee has won 21 of its last 22 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Illinois has lost six of its last seven games played at neutral venues.
Tennessee has covered the spread in each of its last five games played at neutral venues.
Illinois has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three December games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

Each of Illinois’ last four games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of Tennessee’s last three games against non-AP-ranked teams at neutral venues have gone OVER the total points line.

Illinois Fighting Illini Player Prop Facts

Heading into the bowl games, Gabe Jacas ranks T1st in the Big Ten Conference for sacks (11.0) this season.

Tennessee Volunteers Player Prop Facts

Heading into the bowl games, Chris Brazzell II is one of only 10 players in the FBS to record 1,000 receiving yards with less than 80 receptions this season.

Matchup/League Facts

Illinois ranks 111th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (88.1).
Illinois ranks T27th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (7.7).
Tennessee ranks 2nd among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+9.5).
Tennessee ranks 4th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (482.0).

Tennessee vs Illinois Prediction

I’ll go with Tennessee here, but you could call it either way. This should be a fun matchup. The Vols had a bad second half against a great Vanderbilt team in their last outing and eventually surrendered a whopping 582 yards, 314 rush yards, 9.0 yards per play and 7-of-10 on third downs. The offense had 382 yards with 21 first downs and 12-of-19 on third downs but was only on the field for 25:01 of game time. Tennessee had given up a combined 20 points over their previous two games (both wins).

As for Illinois, they were able to power past a decent Northwestern team in their last outing thanks to four takeaways and 254 yards allowed on defense. The Illini could only muster 14 first downs and 2-of-10 on third downs themselves, however. Illinois is 3-1 in their last three games with 24 or more points in two of those wins. They’ll need a good defensive effort to keep Tennessee in check here.