| MATCHUP | TCU Horned Frogs | North Carolina Tar Heels |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Spread | -3.5 -112 | +3.5 -108 |
| Moneyline | -180 | +150 |
| Total | Over 54.5 (-108) | Under 54.5 (-112) |
| Where | Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC | |
| When | Monday, September 1, 2025 | |
| Time | 08:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN | |
The TCU Horned Frogs and North Carolina Tar Heels meet Monday in college football action at Kenan Stadium. Here’s a TCU vs North Carolina Prediction. This article will include a TCU vs North Carolina Pick.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview
The TCU Horned Frogs won nine games last season and enter the fourth year under coach Sonny Dykes. TCU has won nine or more games in nine of the last 18 years.
Josh Hoover is back for another season after throwing for nearly 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns last season. The TCU offensive line and ground game has question marks, but receiver Eric McAlister is one of the best in the country, while transfers Jordan Dwyer and Joseph Manjack IV provide depth. There’s a proven quarterback and receivers, and Dykes is an offensive guy. I’m not concerned about this side of the ball.
Defensively, Namdi Obiazor returns after 81 tackles and 2.5 sacks, while Jamel Johnson had 73 tackles and 3 pass deflections. Bud Clark had 68 tackles and 3 pass deflections, while Kaleb Elarms-Orr had 54 tackles and 2 sacks. Avery Helm returns from injury and Washington State transfer Ansel Din-Mbuh is coming off a six sack season. With the returning talent and a second season under coordinator Andy Avalos, this TCU defense could be the best in the Big 12.
TCU isn’t getting a lot of respect in the betting market, but the offense has legit playmakers and the defense is strong. TCU is a sleeper in the Big 12 this season.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview
The North Carolina Tar Heels won six games last season and begin the Bill Belichick era. North Carolina has made a bowl appearance in each of the last six years, but there’s increased expectations for obvious reasons.
Offensively, UNC will be led by coordinator Freddie Kitchens, who has bounced around from college to the NFL. North Carolina will likely have Gio Lopez at quarterback after he threw for 2,500 yards and 18 touchdowns with South Alabama. Kobe Paysour had 21 receptions last season, and Aziah Johnson transferred from Michigan State after 16 catches last season. UNC also has an above-average offensive line, so this side of the ball has potential.
The defense will be led by coordinator Stephen Belichick, who is a three-time Super Bowl champion. UNC lost its top-four tacklers, but Kaleb Cost is back after 64 tackles and 4 pass deflections. Marcus Allen had 36 tackles and 4 pass deflections, while Will Hardy had 34 tackles and 1 interception. Pryce Yates comes over from UCONN and has 12.5 sacks for his career, while D’Antre Robinson was a highly recruited player at Florida. This North Carolina defense has potential, but there are a lot of moving parts.
North Carolina is intriguing as there’s talent on both sides of the ball, but this is a new team from the players to the coaching staff. Also, nearly every coach is either successful in college or the NFL, not both. So the jury is out on Belichick.
Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win
- North Carolina has won three of its last four September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- TCU has lost three of its last four September games as a favorite.
- TCU has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four September games as a favorite.
- The underdog has covered the spread in five of North Carolina’s last six games.
Why the TCU Horned Frogs will win
- TCU has won each of its last 10 road openers as a favorite.
- North Carolina has lost four of its last five games at Kenan Stadium.
- North Carolina has failed to cover the spread in each of its last eight games at Kenan Stadium.
- TCU has covered the spread in seven of its last eight road openers as a favorite.
North Carolina Tar Heels Player Prop Facts
- Kaleb Cost led North Carolina for interceptions (2) last season.
TCU Horned Frogs Player Prop Facts
- Josh Hoover ranked 7th amongst FBS players for passing yards (3949) last season.
TCU vs North Carolina Prediction
I considered the free field goal with North Carolina, as it’s a home game and the place is going to be packed for obvious reasons. However, this a new UNC team, and it’s certain to take time with new players and coaches. Also, as I mentioned before, coaches are either good in NFL or college. There’s maybe three who have had success in both? Switzer, Johnson, and Carroll. That’s about it, folks. TCU is talented on both sides of the ball and is set at key positions. You can argue TCU should be a bigger favorite. I’ll lay the field goal with TCU.