Tarleton State vs Bowling Green Prediction 9/5/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

The Tarleton Texans and the Bowling Green Falcons meet in week 1 college football action from Doyt L. Perry Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tarleton Texans vs. Bowling Green Falcons Prediction.

Tarleton Texans Team Preview

The Tarleton Texans come into this game looking to add on to their 49-30 win over Prairie View A&M last time out to improve to 1-0 on the year. After this game, the Texans will take on McNeese on the road.

Texans Looking For FBS Win

Kaden Anderson threw for 224 yards and 3 TDs on 15 of 21 passing while Braedyn Locke tossed for 50 yards and a TD on 5 of 6 passing. Anderson also rushed for a TD while Tylan Hines rushed for 184 yards and 2 TDs on 25 carries. Marquis Willis led Tarleton’s receiving room with 5 grabs for 102 yards and 2 TDs while Tanner Schmidt added 5 grabs for 63 yards and a touchdown. Klein Essier also had 3 grabs for 31 yards and a score. On defense, Fredd Adams and Gerard Culotta each had a team-high 10 total tackles in the winning effort for Tarleton.

Bowling Green Falcons Team Preview

The Bowling Green Falcons look to show some progression in 2026 after a 4-8 record overall in year one under Eddie George, including a 2-6 mark in MAC play. The Falcons got their new QB in Oregon transfer Austin Novosad, who leads an offense that also features top RB Austyn Dendy, but that’s about where the continuity ends as the WR and offensive line is being rebuilt on the fly. On defense, Andrew Hines III and Dorain Pringle will lead the defensive front while JoJo Johnson will be the anchor of Bowling Green’s secondary.

Tarleton State Texans @ Bowling Green Falcons Betting Trends: Week 1

Why the Bowling Green Falcons will win

• Bowling Green has won five of its last six games against non-conference opponents at Doyt Perry Stadium.
• Bowling Green has covered the spread in each of its last three games against non-conference opponents.
• Bowling Green has won the first quarter in each of its last six games against non-FBS teams.
• Bowling Green has won the first half in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents at Doyt Perry Stadium.

Why the Tarleton State Texans will win

• The underdog has won each of Bowling Green’s last five games at Doyt Perry Stadium.
• Bowling Green has lost each of its last four games as a favorite in Ohio.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of Bowling Green’s last seven games at Doyt Perry Stadium.
• Bowling Green has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games as a favorite in Ohio.
• The road team has won the first half in six of Bowling Green’s last seven games.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of Bowling Green’s last 10 games as a favorite in Ohio have gone UNDER the total points line.

Bowling Green Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Austyn Dendy was one of only 25 players in the FBS to record 100+ rushing yards in three or more consecutive games last season.

Tarleton State Texans Player Prop Facts

• Kaden Anderson ranked 2nd in the Mountain West Conference amongst qualified players for sack percentage (4.3%) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Bowling Green ranked 133rd among FBS teams for red zone percentage against last season (93.9).
• Bowling Green ranked T128th among FBS teams for 1st downs last season (199).

Tarleton Texans vs. Bowling Green Falcons Prediction

I’m on Tarleton and the points here. I know Bowling Green has a lot of upside with Novosad coming in and Dendy returning, but the Texans are a top FBS team and in my eyes are North Dakota State redux. An FCS team that’s an FBS team in disguise and a team that FBS teams might stop scheduling early on in seasons because of how good they are. I think Tarleton wins this one outright so give me the Texans here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Tarleton +2.5