SMU (2-1) vs TCU (2-0)
September 20, 2025 at 12:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: TCU -7 — Over/Under: +65
In this article we will formulate a SMU vs TCU prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 20th at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 4 matchup.
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview
The SMU Mustangs are 2-1 this year after they defeated Missouri State by a score of 28-10 in their last game. SMU trailed 10-0 after the first quarter, but they led 14-10 at halftime and pulled away in the second half for the victory. The Mustangs out gained Missouri State by a total of 448-328, went 7-15 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 3-2 in the game. Kevin Jennings went 24-36 for 281 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while TJ Harden rushed 15 times for 96 yards and two scores. Jalen Cooper led the SMU receivers with five catches for 68 yards in the win. The SMU defense recorded five sacks and nine tackles for loss in the game.
SMU defeated East Texas A&M by a score of 42-13 in week one, but they lost their second game by a score of 48-45 in overtime against Baylor. The Mustangs are averaging 38.3 points per game with 278.7 passing yards and 156.7 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 23.7 points against per game this season. Kevin Jennings has completed 70.5% of his passes for 836 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Romello Brinson has caught 15 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns. TJ Harden has led the rushing attack with 42 carries for 253 yards and five scores this season.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview
The TCU Horned Frogs are 2-0 this season after they defeated Abilene Christian by a score of 42-21 last week. TCU led 14-0 after the first quarter and 28-0 at halftime, but they did allow 21 points in the second half in the win. The Horned Frogs out gained ACU by a total of 490-453, went 9-11 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 1-0. Josh Hoover went 21-27 for 337 yards and four touchdowns, while Kevorian Barnes rushed 10 times for 43 yards in the game. Joseph Manjack IV caught four passes for 114 yards in the win. The TCU defense recorded four sacks and seven tackles for loss in the victory.
TCU opened their season with a 48-14 win over North Carolina in week one. The Horned Frogs are averaging 45.0 points per game with 322.5 passing yards and 193 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 17.5 points against per game this season. Josh Hoover has completed 76.2% of his passes for 621 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception, while Jordan Dwyer has caught 14 passes for 225 yards and two scores. Kevorian Barnes is the leading rusher for TCU with 156 yards and one touchdown on 21 carries.
Why TCU will beat SMU
TCU has won each of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.
SMU has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
TCU has covered the spread in five of its last six games.
Why SMU will beat TCU
SMU has won each of its last five road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
TCU has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games as a favorite against teams from Texas.
SMU has covered the spread in four of its last five road games against TCU.
Total Points Facts
Each of TCU’s last five September games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of SMU’s last four September road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
TCU ranks T3rd among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (14.0).
TCU ranks 4th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (69.6).
SMU ranks T6th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (5).
SMU ranks T12th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (1.0).
David Racey is 16-9 (64%) in his last 25 College Football plays this season. Click here for his premium plays for this week!
SMU vs TCU Prediction
SMU comes into this matchup after sleepwalking their way through their last game against Missouri State, but that was a look ahead spot for sure. The Mustangs blew their game against Baylor earlier this year and their defense definitely had some issues. TCU really hasn’t been tested yet, but we know Hoover is a great quarterback and he should have another big day. I think we will see plenty of points in this game, especially from TCU, so give me the over in this contest.