SMU vs Florida State Prediction 9/7/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a SMU vs Florida State prediction for this College Football game on Monday, September 7th at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 1 matchup. 

SMU Mustangs Betting Preview

The SMU Mustangs were 9-4 (6-2) last season and they finished tied for second in the ACC standings with five other teams. SMU started the season with a 42-13 win over East Texas A&M, but they lost to Baylor 48-45 in their second game. The Mustangs started the season with a 5-2 record, but they lost to Wake Forest 13-12, before going 3-1 to finish the regular season. SMU went to the Holiday Bowl, where they defeated Arizona by a score of 24-19. The Mustangs scored 32.2 points per game in 2025, while they allowed 20.5 points against per game on defense. 

This season, SMU will have Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, who has plenty of experience coming into this year. The Mustangs should have a strong offensive line and the running game should be decent, but they need some WRs to step up and produce. On defense, SMU will have more than a few new faces, so we will see how long it takes for that unit to gel together. 

Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview

The Florida State Seminoles are 1-0 this year after they defeated New Mexico State by a score of 34-17 last week. Florida State led 17-7 at halftime, but they struggled to pull away and really didn’t look very good in the win. The Seminoles out gained NMSU by a total of 419-319, went 8-14 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at one in the game. Ashton Daniels threw for 202 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Samuel Singleton Jr caught four passes for 54 yards and one score. Ousmane Kromah rushed 14 times for 115 yards and one touchdown in the win. 

Last year, Florida State went 5-7 (2-6) and they finished tied for 13th in the ACC standings. Florida State opened the season with a 31-17 win over Alabama and they won their second game 77-3 against East Texas A&M. The Seminoles started the season with a 3-0 record, but they lost each of the next four games. FSU did pick up wins against Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, but they ultimately went 2-7 over their last nine games. Florida State scored 33.0 points per game in 2025, while they allowed 22.0 points against per game on defense. 

Why the Florida State Seminoles will win

• The home team has won 11 of Florida State’s last 13 games.
• SMU has lost four of its last five road games in September.
• SMU has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five road games in September.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of Florida State’s last three games.
• SMU has lost the first half in three of its last four road games in September.

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• SMU has won nine of its last 10 season openers.
• Florida State has lost 11 of its last 13 games against conference opponents.
• Florida State has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last 10 games.
• SMU has covered the spread in three of its last four games as a favorite.
• Florida State has lost the first half in eight of its last nine games as an underdog in Florida.

Total Points Facts

• Each of SMU’s last six season openers as a favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Florida State’s last five games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Florida State Seminoles Player Prop Facts

• Micahi Danzy ranked 4th amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (21.1) last season.

SMU Mustangs Player Prop Facts

• Kendrick Raphael ranked 11th amongst FBS players for rushing attempts (232) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Florida State ranked 6th among FBS teams for yards per game last season (472.1).
• Florida State ranked 7th among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters last season (+6.6).
• SMU ranked 7th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game last season (2.5).
• SMU ranked 8th among FBS teams for interceptions last season (18).

SMU vs Florida State Prediction 

Florida State comes into this matchup with the home field advantage and they have the benefit of playing in week zero, but they desperately need this win. The Seminoles had some issues with New Mexico State last week, so a bounce back performance is important here. SMU was very solid last season and I think their offense will be decent, but I am worried about the defense. This should be a great game on Monday night, but I can’t pass up the points with the home team. Take FSU in this one.

David Racey's Pick: Florida State +3