Sam Houston (0-0) vs Western Kentucky (0-0)
August 23, 2025 at 07:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Western Kentucky -10 — Over/Under: +60.5
In this article we will formulate a Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, August 23rd at L.T. Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, Kentucky. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 0 matchup.
Sam Houston Bearkats Betting Preview
The Sam Houston Bearkats went 10-3 (6-2) last season, which was tied for second in C-USA. Sam Houston did win their opening game against Rice by a score of 34-14 and also picked up wins against Hawaii, New Mexico State, Texas State, UTEP, FIU, Louisiana Tech, Kennesaw State, and Liberty in the regular season. The Bearkats lost to UCF, Western Kentucky, and Jacksonville State last year. Sam Houston finished their season by winning the New Orleans Bowl by a score of 31-26 over Georgia Southern. They scored 23.8 points per game, which was 99th in the country, while they allowed 20.5 points against per game, which was ranked 22nd.
Sam Houston will have a new head coach this season, as Phil Longo will replace Keeler. The Bearkats are returning their starting quarterback from last year, Hunter Watson, but they did lose their top receiver and top running back. On the bright side, Sam Houston should have an experienced offensive line, but they will have to replace a ton of production on the defensive side of the ball. I expect the Bearkats to show improvement on offense with Watson, but I think they are going to take a major step back on defense.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers were 8-6 (6-2) last year, which was tied for second in the C-USA standings. Western Kentucky dropped their opening game against Alabama by a score of 63-0, but they bounced back by winning seven of the next eight games. The Hilltoppers picked up wins against EKU, MTSU, Toledo, UTEP, Sam Houston, Kennesaw State, New Mexico State, and Jacksonville State, while losing to Alabama, Boston College, Louisiana Tech, and Liberty in the regular season. Western Kentucky lost in the CUSA Title game against Jacksonville State by a score of 52-12 and they also lost the Boca Raton Bowl against James Madison by a score of 27-17. WKU scored 24.9 points per game, which was 92nd, while they allowed 24.6 points against per game, which was ranked 64th.
Western Kentucky has had plenty of success over the last few season’s, but they struggled down the stretch in 2024 and will look to bounce back here. The Hilltoppers will replace their starting quarterback with a transfer from Abilene Christian and they lost their top three receivers from last year. WKU also lost most of their offensive line, so they have quite a few question marks on the offensive side of the ball. On defense, Western Kentucky really struggled to stop the run in 2024 and they will be replacing most of their front seven.
Why Sam Houston will beat Western Kentucky
- Sam Houston State has won three of its last four games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Western Kentucky has lost four of its last five games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Western Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The underdog has covered the spread in four of Western Kentucky’s last five games at L.T. Smith Stadium.
Total Points Facts
- Nine of Sam Houston State’s last 10 games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of Western Kentucky’s last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams at L.T. Smith Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Western Kentucky ranked 118th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game last season (108.9).
- Western Kentucky ranked 117th among FBS teams for time of possession per game last season (27:26).
- Sam Houston State ranked T12th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage last season (70.0).
- Sam Houston State ranked 13th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game last season (177.0).
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky
These two teams will open the season with a conference battle during Week Zero, after Western Kentucky won by a score of 31-14 last year. Both of these teams are replacing a good amount of production on both sides of the ball, but I am going to side with Sam Houston here. I think the Bearkats have way more upside on the offensive side of the ball, especially this early in the season, while I don’t trust the WKU defense at all. Take Sam Houston and the points on the road.