| MATCHUP | Rice Owls | Texas State Bobcats |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 5-7 | 6-6 |
| Spread | +14.5 -115 | -14.5 -105 |
| Moneyline | +455 | -625 |
| Total | Over 57.5 (-108) | Under 57.5 (-112) |
| When | Friday, January 2, 2026 | |
| Time | 01:00 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN | |
In this article, we will formulate a Rice vs Texas State Prediction for this College Football Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Game on Friday, January 2nd. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.
Texas State Bobcats Preview
Texas State has a 6-6 record this season and finished 3-5 in the Sun Belt. They are coming off a 49-26 home win against South Alabama. Offensively, Texas State averages 36.1 points per game, ranking 13th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 30.6 points per game, which is 112th. Texas State averages 475.8 total yards per game (255.3 passing and 220.5 rushing), while allowing 398.5 total yards per game (170.1 rushing and 228.4 passing).
Brad Jackson leads Texas State with 3,050 passing yards with 71.3% completed passes and 18 touchdowns. Lincoln Pare leads the team in rushing yards with 1,022, while Beau Sparks has a team-high 80 receptions for 1,113 receiving yards. Defensively, Treylin Payne has a team-high 102 total tackles (45 of them solo), while Kalil Alexander leads the team in sacks, with 4, and Jaden Rios leads the team with 3 interceptions.
Rice Owls Preview
Rice has a 5-7 record this season and finished 2-6 in the American. They are coming off a 3-52 road loss against South Florida. Offensively, Rice averages 19.8 points per game, ranking 119th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 32.2 points per game, which is 120th. Rice averages 311.3 total yards per game (97.9 passing and 213.3 rushing), while allowing 401.1 total yards per game (157.3 rushing and 243.8 passing).
Chase Jenkins leads Rice with 1,025 passing yards with 69.2% completed passes and 9 touchdowns. Quinton Jackson leads the team in rushing yards with 811, while Aaron Turner has a team-high 53 receptions for 374 receiving yards. Defensively, Andrew Awe has a team-high 101 total tackles (45 of them solo), while Tony Anyanwu leads the team in sacks, with 5, and Peyton Stevenson, Jack Kane lead the team with one interception each.
Rice Owls @ Texas State Bobcats Betting Trends: Bowl
Why the Texas State Bobcats will win
- Texas State has won each of its last four games against opponents from the American Conference.
- Rice has lost each of its last four games at neutral venues.
- Rice has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games as an underdog at neutral venues.
- The favorite has covered the spread in each of Rice’s last four games.
- Texas State has won the first half in each of its last four games against opponents from the American Conference.
- Texas State has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against opponents from the American Conference.
Why the Rice Owls will win
- Texas State has lost four of its last six games as a favorite.
- Rice has won three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
- Texas State has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games as a favorite.
- The underdog has covered the spread in seven of Texas State’s last nine games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Rice’s last six games as an underdog in Texas have gone OVER the total points line.
- Four of Texas State’s last five games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.
Texas State Bobcats Player Prop Facts
- Beau Sparks has recorded 50+ receiving yards in 13 consecutive games (including postseason) – equal-longest streak in the FBS, heading into the bowl games.
Rice Owls Player Prop Facts
- Heading into the bowl games, Chase Jenkins ranks T17th in the league for TD:INT ratio (4.50) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Texas State has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (3).
- Texas State ranks 4th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (10.7).
- Rice ranks 136th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (100.0).
- Rice ranks 135th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (97.9).
Rice vs Texas State Prediction
In this Rice vs Texas State Prediction, Texas State is coming as -14-point favorites. Both teams have almost identical overall records this season and both have just two wins away from home, as this game takes place in a neutral site. Texas State has been in better form lately, having won its last three games, while on the other hand, Rice is 2-6 in its last 8 games and 2-5 against the spread. Rice has also been weaker both offensively and defensively, having a -12.4 point differential this season, so the value here lies with Texas State, who I expect to win and cover the -14 spread today.