Wisconsin (5-2) vs Penn State (6-0)
Game Info: Saturday, October 26, 2024 at 7:30 pm (Camp Randall Stadium)
The Line: Betting Odds: Wisconsin +6.5 / Penn State -6.5 — Over/Under: 47.5
The Penn State Nittany Lions and the Wisconsin Badgers meet Saturday in college football action from Camp Randall Stadium. Here’s a Penn State vs Wisconsin prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Penn State vs Wisconsin pick. We will examine:
The Penn State Nittany Lions’ recent form and player performance
The Wisconsin Badgers’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Penn State Nittany Lions
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Wisconsin Badgers
Recent betting trends in games played between Penn State and Wisconsin
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Penn State vs Wisconsin game
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview
Penn State kicked off their year with a nice string of wins, though a couple of them were close escapes. The Nittany Lions opened with victories versus West Virginia, Bowling Green, Kent State, Illinois, and UCLA in their first five games.
Penn State was able to keep it going back on October 12 versus USC—but it was a close one. The Lions posted a 24-10 run in the second half in a comeback overtime victory 33-30. QB Drew Allar logged 391 yards, two scores, and three picks. Tyler Warren went off for 224 yards and a TD on 17 catches.
Wisconsin Badgers Betting Preview
Over on the Wisconsin side, they took wins over Western Michigan and South Dakota to kick off the season, then fell to Alabama and USC. The Badgers would rebound with wins versus Purdue and Rutgers in the next two games.
Last weekend versus Northwestern, Wisconsin scored 14 points in the second quarter along the way to a 23-3 victory. QB Braedyn Locke threw for 160 yards, one TD, and one interception. Leading the rush was Tawee Walker with 23 totes for 126 yards.
Why the Wisconsin Badgers will win
- Wisconsin has won five of its last six games against conference opponents.
- Penn State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six road games in October.
- The underdog has covered the spread in four of Penn State’s last five games.
Why the Penn State Nittany Lions will win
- Penn State has won 33 of its last 34 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Wisconsin has lost each of its last 11 games as an underdog against top-15 AP-ranked teams.
- Wisconsin has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 12 home games.
- The team ranked 3rd in the AP Poll has covered the spread in four of its last five games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Wisconsin’s last four October games against top-10 AP-ranked teams has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of Penn State’s last five October games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Wisconsin ranks 9th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (2.0).
- Wisconsin ranks 9th among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (105).
- Penn State ranks 3rd among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+9.3).
- Penn State ranks 4th among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (4.5).
Penn State vs Wisconsin Prediction
I’ll stay with Penn State. The Lions didn’t play particularly well against a good USC team in their last game, notching three interceptions and a rough 4-of-13 rate on third-down conversions. Penn State gave up 7.1 yards per play on defense, but held the Trojans to just 16 first downs and a 2-of-11 success rate on third-down tries in a gritty win.
As for Wisconsin, they made short work of a struggling Northwestern team over the weekend, giving up just 209 yards (82 passing), nine first downs, 3.8 yards per play, and 2-of-14 on third-down conversions. The opposition will ratchet up significantly here, and I don’t think the Badgers will cover—even in a more comfortable home game.