Penn State vs Michigan State Prediction 11/15/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

Andrew Jett

5 hours ago

Sep 11, 2021; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan State Spartans cheerleaders perform during the third quarter against the Youngstown State Penguins at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Nittany Lions Penn State	Spartans Michigan State
Team Records	3-6	3-6
Spread	-7 -110	+7 -110
Moneyline	-250	+205
Total	Over 50.5 (-105)	Under 50.5 (-115)
Where	Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
When	Saturday, November 15, 2025
Time	03:30 PM EST

The Penn State Nittany Lions and the Michigan State Spartans meet Saturday in college football action from Spartan Stadium. Here’s a Penn State vs Michigan State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Penn State vs Michigan State pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview

Penn State was able to win their first three games this year over Nevada, Florida International and Villanova, but then began a losing streak against some tough opponents. The Nittany Lions would lose versus Oregon, UCLA, Northwestern, Iowa and Ohio State in the next five games. In the loss to the Buckeyes 38-14 on November 1, Penn State gave up 480 total yards, 8.7 yards per play and 6-of-9 on third downs. The offense gained just 200 yards on the other side with 15 first downs and 3.3 yards per play in the road defeat.

In their latest outing on Saturday versus Indiana, the Lions faced a 20-10 deficit heading into the final quarter. Penn State made things interesting with a 14-7 run from there but still took a tough home loss 27-24. Ethan Grunkemeyer finished 22-of-31 for 219 yards, one TD and one pick. Tops in rushing was Nick Singleton with 71 yards and two scores on 10 carries, and Trebor Pena had six catches for 99 yards as the team’s leading receiver in the loss.

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

Over on the Spartans’ side, they managed to win their first three games this year as well, taking out Western Michigan, Boston College and Youngstown State in that trio. Michigan State would lose six straight from there though, falling to USC, Nebraska, UCLA, Indiana, Michigan and Minnesota in that time. In the loss to the Wolverines on October 25, Michigan State gave up 362 total yards, 276 rushing yards, 20 first downs and 6-of-15 on third downs. The team committed 12 penalties for 105 yards in the home defeat as well.

In Michigan State’s most recent appearance versus Minnesota on November 1, the Spartans came back from a 10-0 halftime deficit to force overtime. In the end however, Michigan State had a 23-20 road loss. QB Alessio Millivojevic finished with 311 yards and a score on 20-of-28 passing and lead rusher Elijah Tau-Tolliver had 127 yards on 11 carries. Rodney Bullard led the receivers on 102 yards and a score off four catches in the losing effort.

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Michigan State Spartans Betting Trends: Week 12

Michigan State Spartans Player Prop Facts

Heading into Week 12, Ryan Eckley ranks 1st in the Big Ten Conference amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (49.7) this season.

Penn State Nittany Lions Player Prop Facts

Heading into Week 12, Drew Allar ranks T19th amongst qualified players for sack percentage (3.6%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

Michigan State ranks 116th among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (31.4).
Michigan State ranks T114th among FBS teams for H1 points per game this season (10.3).
Penn State ranks T18th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+3.9).
Penn State ranks T22nd among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (16.9).

Penn State vs Michigan State Prediction

I’ll try Michigan State in this one. The Spartans have had some time to rest and gather themselves after the overtime road loss to Minnesota. Michigan State had another penalty-filled outing in that one, attracting 10 flags (for 96 yards) to the Gophers’ two. The Spartans offense went just 5-of-15 on third downs but did manage to pile up 467 total yards. Michigan State has been below 21 points in four straight games now, so they’ve got to find a way to score here.

As for the Lions, they put together an admirable effort at home versus a tough Indiana team over the weekend but it wasn’t enough. Penn State came up with 336 yards on offense with 5.3 yards per play and 8-of-15 on third downs but also had a couple of turnovers. The defense gave up 326 yards on the other side with 20 first downs and 5-of-12 on third downs. The Lions have given up 22 or more points in six straight games now—all losses.