Texas State (7-5) vs North Texas (6-6)
January 3, 2025 at 04:00 PM EST
The Line: Betting Odds: Texas State -14 / North Texas +14 — Over/Under: 67.5
The North Texas Mean Green and the Texas State Bobcats meet Friday in college football action from Gerald J Ford Stadium. Here’s a North Texas vs Texas State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best North Texas vs Texas State pick. We will examine:
The North Texas Mean Green recent form and player performance
The Texas State Bobcats recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the North Texas Mean Green
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Texas State Bobcats
Recent betting trends in games played between North Texas vs Texas State
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the North Texas vs Texas State game
North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview
The Green hit a nice 5-1 start to the year with a lone loss to Texas Tech 66-21 back on September 14. North Texas would lose to Memphis, Tulane, Army, UTSA and East Carolina before another win over Temple on November 30.
In the Temple game, the Mean Green did all their scoring in the first half. Fortunately North Texas was ahead by then, and held the Owls off for a 24-17 win. QB Chandler Morris finished with 180 yards and a TD. Makenzie McGill had 144 rush yards and two scores on 14 carries.
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview
Over on the Bobcats’ side, they managed a choppy 4-4 record over their first eight games. The losses in that time were versus Arizona State, Sam Houston, Old Dominion and Louisiana. It’s been a 3-1 run since then with wins over LA-Monroe, Southern Miss and South Alabama for Texas State.
Matched up against South Alabama on November 29, the Bobcats posted double-digit points in three of four quarters on the way to a hard-fought 45-38 win. Jordan McCloud managed 248 yards with one TD and two interceptions. Ismail Mahdi carried 20 times for 147 yards and one touchdown.
Why the Texas State Bobcats will win
- North Texas has lost each of its last six games at neutral venues.
- Texas State has won three of its last four games.
- North Texas has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The favorite has covered the spread in four of North Texas’ last five Bowl games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of North Texas’ last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of Texas State’s last four games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Texas State ranks 5th among FBS teams for H1 points per game this season (21.8).
- Texas State ranks 5th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (474.3).
- North Texas ranks 130th among FBS teams for H1 opponent points per game this season (21.0).
- North Texas ranks 6th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (10.1).
North Texas vs Texas State Prediction
I’ll stick with Texas State, but not on a line beyond two touchdowns or so. The Bobcats played a wild one versus South Alabama in their last outing, but to their credit the Texas State defense buckled down as the game wore on. The Bobcats came up with 530 total yards (282 rushing), 28 first downs and 10-of-17 on third-down tries in that one for a nice display. Texas State has scored 38 or more points in four straight games now, though they’ve also given up a combined 90 points in the last two games.
As for North Texas, they had a nice rushing outing (253 yards) in their win over Temple, which proved to be the key in the scoreless second half. It was a much-needed defensive stand after 88 combined points over the previous two games. The Mean Green have given up 37 or more points in five of their last seven games though, so if Texas State can find a good stretch of offense here the Bobcats should be fine.