| MATCHUP | North Texas Mean Green | San Diego State Aztecs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 11-2 | 9-3 |
| Spread | -5.5 -108 | +5.5 -112 |
| Moneyline | -205 | +170 |
| Total | Over 52.5 (-112) | Under 52.5 (-108) |
| Where | University Stadium (NM), Albuquerque, NM | |
| When | Saturday, December 27, 2025 | |
| Time | 05:45 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN | |
North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview
The North Texas Mean Green are 11-2 (7-1) this season after they lost to Tulane by a score of 34-21 in their last game. North Texas led 7-0 in the first quarter, but they trailed 24-7 at halftime and only managed 14 points in the second half in the disappointing loss. The Mean Green out gained Tulane by a total of 415-344, went 4-12 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 5-0 in the game. Drew Mestemaker went 21-34 for 294 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Ashton Gray rushed eight times for 47 yards and one score. Miles Coleman led the receivers with seven catches for 125 yards and one touchdown in the loss.Prior to that game, North Texas defeated Temple by a score of 52-25 and Rice by a score of 56-24. The Mean Green have won six of their last seven games and they finished tied for second in the American standings. North Texas has scored 46.6 points per game with 323.2 passing yards and 181.1 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 24.9 points against per game this season. Drew Mestemaker is one of the biggest names in the transfer portal, but it sounds like he is going to play in this one, while Wyatt Young has 63 receptions for 1,209 yards and 10 scores this season.
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview
The San Diego State Aztecs are 9-3 (6-2) this year after they lost to New Mexico in double overtime by a score of 23-17 in their last game. San Diego State led 14-10 at halftime, but they needed a field goal in the third quarter to tie the game, before going scoreless in the fourth and both overtime periods for the loss. The Aztecs out gained UNM by a total of 355-308, went 4-13 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Jayden Denegal went 14-24 for 162 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Lucky Sutton rushed 22 times for 110 yards and one score. Donovan Brown led the receivers with five catches for 91 yards and one score in the loss.Prior to that game, San Diego State defeated San Jose State by a score of 25-3 and Boise State by a score of 17-7. The Aztecs have split their last four games and they finished tied for first in the Mountain West standings. San Diego State has scored 24.8 points per game with 153.7 passing yards and 188.1 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 12.6 points against per game this season. Jayden Denegal has thrown for 1,807 yards, nine touchdowns, and eight interceptions, while Lucky Sutton has rushed for 1,237 yards and 10 scores on 239 carries this year.
Why the North Texas Mean Green will win
- North Texas has won each of its last 12 games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- San Diego State has lost each of its last three games against AP-ranked teams.
- North Texas has covered the spread in each of its last nine games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of San Diego State’s last eight games against non-conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of North Texas’ last six games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- San Diego State ranks 3rd among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (5.2).
- San Diego State ranks T4th among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (180).
- North Texas has scored 45+ points in four road games this season – most of any FBS team.
- North Texas ranks 1st among FBS teams for yards per game this season (504.3).
North Texas vs San Diego State Prediction
North Texas had an incredible regular season and they had one of the top offenses in the country, but they lost their head coach and I would assume we will see some more opt outs before kickoff. The Mean Green laid an egg against Tulane in their last game and will face a very good SDSU defense here. San Diego State has a very low scoring offense, but their defense led them to a 9-3 record. These two teams play two completely different styles, but I think Denegal being out for San Diego State is going to really cripple whatever was left of their passing game. Take North Texas here, but check back closer to kickoff in case we get major opt outs.David Racey is 174-146 (54%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. David went 5-1 in College Football on Saturday. Click here for his premium plays for the week!