New Mexico State vs Tennessee Prediction 11/15/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article, we will formulate a New Mexico State vs Tennessee Prediction for this College Football Week 12 game on Saturday, November 15th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Tennessee Volunteers Preview

Tennessee has a 6-3 record this season and is sitting 8th in the SEC. They are 3-5-1 ATS, 7-2 in Over/Under and have a 3-2 home record and a 2-1 away record. Tennessee is coming off a 27-33 home loss against Oklahoma and will face Florida next.

Offensively, Tennessee averages 43.6 points per game, ranking 3rd in the nation, while defensively, they allow 31.1 points per game, which is 114th. Tennessee averages 504.1 total yards per game (329.3 passing and 174.8 rushing), while allowing 395.9 total yards per game (141.6 rushing and 254.3 passing).

Joey Aguilar leads Tennessee with 2,737 passing yards with 65.7% completed passes and 21 touchdowns. DeSean Bishop leads the team in rushing yards with 690, while Chris Brazzell II has a team-high 49 receptions for 808 receiving yards. Defensively, Arion Carter has a team-high 63 total tackles (21 of them solo), while Dominic Bailey leads the team in sacks, with 4.5.

New Mexico State Aggies Preview

New Mexico State has a 3-6 record this season and is sitting 10th in the CUSA. They are 4-5 ATS, 3-6 in Over/Under and have a 3-2 home record and a 0-4 away record. New Mexico State is coming off a 21-24 home loss against Kennesaw State and will face UTEP and Middle Tennessee State next.

Offensively, New Mexico State averages 21.3 points per game, ranking 111th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 25.2 points per game, which is 77th. New Mexico State averages 303.3 total yards per game (234.2 passing and 69.1 rushing), while allowing 394.6 total yards per game (148.8 rushing and 245.8 passing).

Logan Fife leads New Mexico State with 2,074 passing yards with 55.2% completed passes and 11 touchdowns. Kadarius Calloway leads the team in rushing yards with 313, while Donovan Faupel has a team-high 43 receptions for 503 receiving yards. Defensively, Naeten Mitchell has a team-high 70 total tackles (45 of them solo), while Ezra Christensen leads the team in sacks, with 6, and Naeten Mitchell has a team-high 3 interceptions.

New Mexico State Aggies @ Tennessee Volunteers Betting Trends: Week 12

Why the Tennessee Volunteers will win

• Tennessee has won each of its last 23 games against non-AP-ranked teams at Neyland Stadium.
• New Mexico State has lost each of its last four games.
• Tennessee has covered the spread in six of its last seven games against non-conference opponents at Neyland Stadium.
• New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in six of its last eight games against non-conference opponents.
• Tennessee has won the first quarter in 21 of its last 23 games against non-conference opponents at Neyland Stadium.
• Tennessee has won the first half in each of its last 13 games against non-conference opponents at Neyland Stadium.

Why the New Mexico State Aggies will win

• Tennessee has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games.
• New Mexico State has covered the spread in five of its last six road games in November.
• New Mexico State has won the first half in each of its last three games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Tennessee’s last eight games against non-conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of New Mexico State’s last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Tennessee Volunteers Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 12, Joey Aguilar ranks 6th amongst FBS players for passing yards (2737) this season.

New Mexico State Aggies Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 12, Donovan Faupel ranks T1st in the Conference USA for receiving touchdowns (5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Tennessee ranks 1st among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (14.6).
• Tennessee ranks 1st among FBS teams for H1 points per game this season (25.3).
• New Mexico State ranks 136th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (69.0).
• New Mexico State ranks 133rd among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (2.1).

New Mexico State vs Tennessee Prediction

In this New Mexico State vs Tennessee Prediction, Tennessee is coming as -39.5-point home favorites, with the total set at 61 points. Tennessee is the better team in this matchup, but they have lost two of their last three games and are a terrible 1-5-1 against the spread in their last 7 games. They boast the third-best defense in the country, but they are weaker defensively, allowing 5.9 points more than New Mexico State, so I am not willing to lay -39.5 points. I like the guests to not get blown out in this one, so take New Mexico State and the +39.5 points in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: New Mexico State +39.5