New Mexico State vs New Mexico Prediction 9/27/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

New Mexico State and New Mexico meet Saturday in Week 5 college football action from University Stadium. Here’s a New Mexico State vs New Mexico prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best New Mexico State Aggies vs New Mexico Lobos pick. We will examine:

The New Mexico State Aggies’ recent form and player performance

The New Mexico Lobos’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Aggies

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Lobos

Recent betting trends in games played between New Mexico State and New Mexico

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the New Mexico State vs New Mexico game.

Can New Mexico State Bounce Back?

New Mexico State comes into this game with a 2-1 record overall, but they are coming off a loss in the last game. New Mexico State faced off against Louisiana Tech, and the offense only scored 14 points while the defense gave up 49 points, on the way to the defeat. Logan Fife had some turnover issues and that ended up hurting them. Logan Fife completed 17 of his 33 passes for 281 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. They also didn’t have any run support, and Kadarius Calloway finished with seven carries for 11 yards. That type of running attack isn’t close to good enough. 

New Mexico State on the season, is averaging 18 points while their defense is giving up 22 points per game. The offense is ranked 123rd while the defense is ranked 64th. The defense would be better if it wasn’t for the last game and the defense is going to need to be a whole lot better here. 

Why New Mexico State Will Beat New Mexico

The underdog has covered the spread in each of New Mexico State’s last six games at University Stadium.
New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 11 September games as a home favorite.

Strong Start for New Mexico

It has been a strong start to the season for New Mexico and their only loss came against Michigan. The last game for the Lobos came against UCLA, and it was a dominant game with the offense putting up 35 points, while the defense gave up only 10 points. They scored 21 points in the 4th quarter to really put the nail in the coffin. Jake Layne was under center, and he completed 12 of his 16 passes for 152 yards and two touchdowns. Damon Bankston had a huge game on the ground also and he finished with 15 carries for 154 yards and a touchdown. He was also the leading receiver catching three passes for 49 yards and a touchdown. 

New Mexico on the season, is averaging 28 points while their defense is giving up 22 points per game. The offense is ranked 79th while the defense is ranked 64th. In this game, if the defense is good, New Mexico will be in great shape to come away with the victory. 

Why New Mexico Will Beat New Mexico State

New Mexico State has lost 11 of its last 12 September road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
New Mexico has won nine of its last 11 games against non-conference opponents at University Stadium.
New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five September games as an underdog.

New Mexico State vs New Mexico Prediction

New Mexico is going to have no issue getting the job done here. New Mexico’s defense is giving up 22 points per game, and they are going to lock down a New Mexico State offense that just can’t be trusted. They are averaging only 18 points per game, and they just don’t have the quarterback play to keep this game close. New Mexico will score at least 35 points here, but even more impressive is going to be the defense. New Mexico will be covering by halftime. Back New Mexico against the spread here.