Nevada vs Western Kentucky Prediction 9/20/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a Nevada vs Western Kentucky prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 20th at Houchens Industries LT Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, Kentucky. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 4 matchup. 

Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview

The Nevada Wolf Pack are 1-2 this year after they lost to Middle Tennessee by a score of 14-13 in their last game. Nevada led 13-0 at halftime, but they failed to score in the second half and allowed two touchdowns in the final quarter for the loss. The Wolf Pack out gained Middle Tennessee by a total of 369-352, went 3-13 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Chubba Purdy went 5-7 for 88 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while AJ Bianco went 9-17 for 78 yards and one interception. Herschel Turner rushed 12 times for 90 yards, while Jordan Brown caught five passes for 58 yards in the loss. The Nevada defense recorded four sacks and six tackles for loss in the game. 

Nevada started their season with a 46-11 loss to Penn State in week one, but they did beat Sacramento State by a score of 20-17 in week two. The Wolf Pack are averaging 14.7 points per game with 145.0 passing yards and 183.3 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 25.7 points against per game this season. Chubba Purdy has completed 55.8% of his passes for 329 yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions, while also rushing for 216 yards and one touchdown. Herschel Turner has rushed 31 times for 153 yards, while Marcus Bellon has caught 11 passes for 153 yards and one score this year. 

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are 2-1 this season after they lost to Toledo by a score of 45-21 last week. Western Kentucky trailed 21-7 after the first quarter and 31-7 at the half, and never got any closer in the loss. The Hilltoppers were out gained by a total of 508-333, went 6-14 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 2-1 in the game. Maverick McIvor went 23-38 for 235 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while Marvis Parrish rushed seven times for 22 yards. Moussa Barry caught three passes for 110 yards in the loss. The WKU defense recorded zero sacks and just one tackle for loss in the game. 

Western Kentucky started the year with a 41-24 win over Sam Houston in week one and a 55-6 win over North Alabama in week two. The Hilltoppers are averaging 39.0 points per game with 358.0 passing yards and 109.3 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 25.0 points against per game this season. Maverick McIvor has completed 66.7% of his passes for 941 yards, 10 touchdowns, and one interception, while Moussa Barry has caught 11 passes for 210 yards. Marvis Parrish has led the WKU rushing attack with 23 carries for 93 yards this season. 

Why Western Kentucky will beat Nevada

Nevada has lost each of its last nine September games as an underdog.
Western Kentucky has won each of its last six September games at L.T. Smith Stadium.
Western Kentucky has covered the spread in seven of its last eight September games at L.T. Smith Stadium.
Nevada has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
Western Kentucky has won the first half in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

Eight of Nevada’s last nine games in September have gone UNDER the total points line.
Four of Western Kentucky’s last five games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

Western Kentucky ranks 8th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (358.0).
Western Kentucky ranks T128th among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (211.0).
Nevada is one of seven FBS teams to score 20 points or less in every game this season.
Nevada ranks T128th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (5.0).

David Racey is 16-9 (64%) in his last 25 College Football plays this season. Click here for his premium plays for this week!

Nevada vs Western Kentucky Prediction 

Western Kentucky never really had a chance against Toledo in their last game, so they will look for a much better effort in this one. The Hilltoppers have an elite passing attack, but the ground game doesn’t do much, so the team really needs McIvor to play well at the QB spot. Nevada is 0-2 against FBS opponents this year, but they had a shot to beat Middle Tennessee last week. I don’t think Western Kentucky’s defense is a great unit, but they should be able to slow down Nevada here. Take the Hilltoppers and their passing offense to cover at home.