NC State (3-0) vs Duke (1-2)
September 20, 2025 at 04:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Duke -2.5 — Over/Under: 0.0001
The North Carolina State Wolfpack and the Duke Blue Devils meet Saturday in college football action from Wallace Wade Stadium. Here’s an NC State vs Duke prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best NC State vs Duke pick. We will examine:
The North Carolina State Wolfpack recent form and player performance
The Duke Blue Devils recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the North Carolina State Wolfpack
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Duke Blue Devils
Recent betting trends in games played between NC State and Duke
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the NC State vs Duke game
The Wolfpack are rolling along quite well at a 3-0 clip so far—despite a couple of close calls mixed in there. NC State opened things up at home versus East Carolina, eventually eking out a 24-17 victory. Game two was another close call, this time against Virginia. NC State came back from a 24-14 halftime deficit with 21 third-quarter points in a 35-31 win. CJ Bailey threw for 200 yards and a TD (and two more rush scores), while Daylan Smothers had 17 carries for 140 yards and two scores of his own. Terrell Anderson caught three balls for 44 yards in the win.
Last Thursday versus Wake Forest, NC State played another tight one. The Wolfpack trailed at halftime 24-17, then scored 17 unanswered points from there in a comeback road win 34-24. Bailey was 23-of-32 for 201 yards and three scores, while Smothers rushed 24 times for 164 yards. Noah Rogers led the receivers this time, hauling in four catches for 52 yards in the victory.
Over on the Blue Devils’ side, they didn’t have too many issues versus Elon in their opener. Duke ended up winning that one by a sizable 45-17 margin. Game two versus a tough Illinois team wasn’t so easy though, despite the Blue Devils trailing by just one point at the break. When the dust settled Duke had a 45-19 loss after giving up 17 unanswered points in the final frame. QB Darian Mensah was 23-of-34 for 334 yards, two scores and an interception. Jaquez Moore led the rush on 30 yards, and Cooper Barkate had four catches for 88 yards.
In last weekend’s matchup with Tulane, the Blue Devils faced a 24-9 deficit by the break, eventually giving up points in all four quarters during a 34-27 defeat. Mensah was 30-of-51 for 313 yards, three scores and an interception in the loss. Tops in rushing was Nate Sheppard with five carries for 75 yards, and Sean Brown added six catches for 81 yards.
Darian Mensah has recorded 300+ passing yards in three consecutive games – longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 4.
Heading into Week 4, Hollywood Smothers leads the Atlantic Coast Conference for rush attempts (63) this season.
Duke ranks 123rd among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (25:45).
Duke ranks T122nd among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (-5.0).
NC State ranks 9th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+9.3).
NC State ranks T10th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (11.7).
As for Duke, they couldn’t solve a tricky Tulane team in their latest loss, especially after falling behind early. In a sloppy overall game (Duke had nine of the 17 total penalties), the Blue Devils had 452 yards with 27 first downs on offense. On defense Duke gave up just 5-of-13 on third downs but also surrendered 246 yards (270 passing) and 6.8 yards per play. It won’t get a whole lot easier this weekend in a rivalry game.
The North Carolina State Wolfpack recent form and player performance
The Duke Blue Devils recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the North Carolina State Wolfpack
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Duke Blue Devils
Recent betting trends in games played between NC State and Duke
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the NC State vs Duke game
North Carolina State Wolfpack Betting Preview
The Wolfpack are rolling along quite well at a 3-0 clip so far—despite a couple of close calls mixed in there. NC State opened things up at home versus East Carolina, eventually eking out a 24-17 victory. Game two was another close call, this time against Virginia. NC State came back from a 24-14 halftime deficit with 21 third-quarter points in a 35-31 win. CJ Bailey threw for 200 yards and a TD (and two more rush scores), while Daylan Smothers had 17 carries for 140 yards and two scores of his own. Terrell Anderson caught three balls for 44 yards in the win.
Last Thursday versus Wake Forest, NC State played another tight one. The Wolfpack trailed at halftime 24-17, then scored 17 unanswered points from there in a comeback road win 34-24. Bailey was 23-of-32 for 201 yards and three scores, while Smothers rushed 24 times for 164 yards. Noah Rogers led the receivers this time, hauling in four catches for 52 yards in the victory.
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview
Over on the Blue Devils’ side, they didn’t have too many issues versus Elon in their opener. Duke ended up winning that one by a sizable 45-17 margin. Game two versus a tough Illinois team wasn’t so easy though, despite the Blue Devils trailing by just one point at the break. When the dust settled Duke had a 45-19 loss after giving up 17 unanswered points in the final frame. QB Darian Mensah was 23-of-34 for 334 yards, two scores and an interception. Jaquez Moore led the rush on 30 yards, and Cooper Barkate had four catches for 88 yards.
In last weekend’s matchup with Tulane, the Blue Devils faced a 24-9 deficit by the break, eventually giving up points in all four quarters during a 34-27 defeat. Mensah was 30-of-51 for 313 yards, three scores and an interception in the loss. Tops in rushing was Nate Sheppard with five carries for 75 yards, and Sean Brown added six catches for 81 yards.
NC State Wolfpack @ Duke Blue Devils Betting Trends: Week 4
Duke Blue Devils Player Prop Facts
Darian Mensah has recorded 300+ passing yards in three consecutive games – longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 4.
NC State Wolfpack Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 4, Hollywood Smothers leads the Atlantic Coast Conference for rush attempts (63) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Duke ranks 123rd among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (25:45).
Duke ranks T122nd among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (-5.0).
NC State ranks 9th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+9.3).
NC State ranks T10th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (11.7).
NC State vs Duke Prediction
I’m going to lean toward NC State. This one should be a pretty fun matchup regardless, though. The Wolfpack have been giving their fans heart attacks over the first three games, but overall the team should be feeling pretty good. There’s plenty of stuff to clean up, including 10 penalties for 94 yards against Wake Forest. That said, NC State also had a great day rushing, notching 205 ground yards (406 total) and 24 first downs. I’d like to see a cleaner game here, but it’s tough to argue against a nice 69 combined points over the last two outings.As for Duke, they couldn’t solve a tricky Tulane team in their latest loss, especially after falling behind early. In a sloppy overall game (Duke had nine of the 17 total penalties), the Blue Devils had 452 yards with 27 first downs on offense. On defense Duke gave up just 5-of-13 on third downs but also surrendered 246 yards (270 passing) and 6.8 yards per play. It won’t get a whole lot easier this weekend in a rivalry game.