| MATCHUP | Navy Midshipmen | Cincinnati Bearcats |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 10-2 | 7-5 |
| Spread | -7.5 -105 | +7.5 -115 |
| Moneyline | -285 | +230 |
| Total | Over 54.5 (-118) | Under 54.5 (-102) |
| Where | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN | |
| When | Friday, January 2, 2026 | |
| Time | 04:30 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN | |
Navy Midshipmen Betting Preview
The Navy Midshipmen beat Army and Memphis. The Navy Midshipmen have won 3 straight games. Blake Horvath is completing 60.7 percent of his passes for 1,472 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Eli Heidenreich and Brandon Chatman have combined for 1,035 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, while Cody Howard has 4 receptions.
The Navy Midshipmen ground game is averaging 289.3 yards per contest, and Blake Horvath leads the way with 1,147 yards and 15 touchdowns. Defensively, Navy is allowing 26 points and 382.3 yards per game. MarcAnthony Parker leads the Navy Midshipmen with 93 tackles, Landon Robinson has 6.5 sacks and Phillip Hamilton has 3 interceptions.
Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Preview
The Cincinnati Bearcats lost to BYU and TCU. The Cincinnati Bearcats have lost 4 straight games. Brendan Sorsby is completing 61.6 percent of his passes for 2,800 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Cyrus Allen and Caleb Goodie have combined for 1,049 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns, while Jeff Caldwell has 32 receptions.
The Cincinnati Bearcats ground game is averaging 178.9 yards per contest, and Tawee Walker leads the way with 709 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, Cincinnati is allowing 24.8 points and 403.4 yards per game. Jake Golday leads the Cincinnati Bearcats with 104 tackles, Jalen Hunt has 3.5 sacks and Matthew McDoom has 1 interception.
Why the Cincinnati Bearcats will win
- Cincinnati has won each of its last four games against teams from Maryland.
- Navy has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games as a favorite.
- The underdog has covered the spread in each of Cincinnati’s last three games at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
- Navy has lost the first half in 14 of its last 17 games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues.
Why the Navy Midshipmen will win
- Navy has won each of its last 10 games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Cincinnati has lost each of its last four games.
- Cincinnati has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against opponents from the American Conference.
- The favorite has covered the spread in five of Cincinnati’s last six games.
Total Points Facts
- Eight of Cincinnati’s last nine games at neutral venues have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of Navy’s last seven games against non-conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Cincinnati Bearcats Player Prop Facts
- Heading into the bowl games, Cyrus Allen ranks T4th amongst FBS players for receiving touchdowns (12) this season.
Navy Midshipmen Player Prop Facts
- Heading into the bowl games, Blake Horvath ranks T12th amongst FBS players for rushing touchdowns (15) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Cincinnati ranks 136th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (24:11).
- Cincinnati ranks 5th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (10.4).
- Navy ranks 133rd among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (131.8).
- Navy ranks T133rd among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (75.0).
Navy vs Cincinnati Prediction
Cincinnati has been getting dragged defensively for much of this season, especially during this four-game losing streak. That includes an awful home loss to Arizona. I doubt Cincinnati will be motivated to finish the season strong. That transfer portal for Cincinnati is ugly, as we’re seeing quarterback Brendan Sorsby, safety Christian Harrison, and cornerback Logan Wilson on the list. This will be a skeleton crew for Cincinnati, and that secondary is paper thin. Navy enters the bowl game playing well on both sides of the ball and has a chance to win 11 games for the third time in program history. With little roster changes, these are two teams heading in different directions. This should be a comfortable win for Navy. I’ll lay the points.