Missouri State (5-3) vs Liberty (4-4)
November 8, 2025 at 01:00 PM EST
The Line: Betting Odds: Liberty -7.5 — Over/Under: +50.5
The Missouri State Bears and the Liberty Flames meet Saturday in college football action from Williams Stadium. Here’s a Missouri State vs Liberty prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Missouri State vs Liberty pick. We will examine:
The Missouri State Bears recent form and player performance
The Liberty Flames recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Missouri State Bears
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Liberty Flames
Recent betting trends in games played between Missouri State and Liberty
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Missouri State vs Liberty game
Missouri State Bears Betting Preview
The Bears opened up the season on a 1-2 run with a lone win over Marshall in between sizable losses versus USC and SMU. Missouri State evened up their record in game four with a win over TN-Martin, then lost to Western Kentucky before wins over Middle Tennessee and New Mexico State. In the win over the Aggies, the Bears coughed up three turnovers and had 12 team penalties along with 22 first downs and 409 total yards. The defense bagged four interceptions though, along with just 3-of-10 allowed on third downs and 82 rush yards.
Missouri State last appeared on October 29 in a home game versus FIU. The Bears posted a touchdown in each of the four quarters during an eventual 28-7 win. QB Jacob Clark logged 163 yards with two touchdowns and Shomari Lawrence carried the rush with 14 totes for 104 yards and two scores. Makai Cope caught two balls for 52 yards, and Jmaiyae Robinson had six grabs for 47 yards and two touchdowns in the winning effort.
Liberty Flames Betting Preview
Over on the Liberty side, they opened things up with a nice win over Maine this year, then fell in four straight to Jacksonville State, Bowling Green, James Madison and Old Dominion. Liberty would beat UTEP and New Mexico State in the next two games, though. Matched up against the Aggies, Liberty ended up with three turnovers and just 3-of-10 on third-down tries along with 19 first downs and 293 total yards. The defense gave up 10-of-17 on third downs but also had a couple of fumble recoveries that were big.
Liberty’s latest game was on Saturday versus Delaware. The Flames scored in all four quarters there—including 21 in both the second and third quarters—during a 59-30 win. QB Ethan Vasko went 14-of-20 for 221 yards and two touchdowns while Evan Dickens went off for 217 yards and four scores off 22 carries as the team’s lead rusher. Donte Lee added five catches for 92 yards and a touchdown as the lead receiver as well.
Missouri State Bears @ Liberty Flames Betting Trends: Week 11
Liberty Flames Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 11, Donte Lee Jr. leads Liberty for receptions (23) this season.
Missouri State Bears Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 11, Dash Luke leads Missouri State for receptions (25) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Liberty ranks T22nd among FBS teams for H1 opponent points per game this season (9.1).
Liberty ranks T112th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (152).
Missouri State ranks T129th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (-4.8).
Missouri State ranks 127th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (32.1).
Missouri State vs Liberty Prediction
I’m just going to stay with Missouri State, but this should be an interesting matchup regardless. The Bears played slow and steady in their latest win over FIU, ending up with 369 total yards, 206 rush yards and 8-of-16 on third downs. The Missouri State defense gave up 346 yards with 23 first downs in that one but also had 6-of-16 on third downs allowed and two recovered fumbles. The Bears have been scoring rather modestly during this three-game win streak but they’ve held opponents below 22 points in all those victories.
As for Liberty, they dropped 561 total yards on Delaware with 25 first downs and 6-of-10 on third-down tries. The defense held the Hens to just 6-of-17 on third downs as well. Liberty has hit 30 or more points in consecutive games now, so this matchup could become a fun one to watch if both offenses are cooking. All things considered though, I like Missouri State a little better cover-wise.