Mississippi State (4-2) vs Florida (2-4)
October 18, 2025 at 04:15 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Florida -8.5 — Over/Under: +50.5
In this article we will formulate a Mississippi State vs Florida prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 18th at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 8 matchup.
Mississippi State also has a loss against Tennessee by a score of 41-34, but they do have wins against NIU, Alcorn State, Arizona State, and Southern Miss. The Bulldogs have lost two games in a row and they are last in the SEC in the win column. Mississippi State has scored 33.7 points per game with 211.2 passing yards and 184.3 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 19.8 points against per game this season. Blake Shapen has thrown for 1,201 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions, while Fluff Bothwell has rushed 84 times for 465 yards and six scores this year.
Florida also has losses against Miami, LSU, and South Florida, but they did beat LIU and Texas. The Gators have lost four of their last five games and they are currently 11th in the SEC standings. Florida has scored 24.3 points per game with 227.3 passing yards and 120.8 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 19.8 points against per game this season. DJ Lagway has thrown for 1,233 yards, nine touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while Jadan Baugh has rushed for 461 yards and three scores on 94 carries this season.
Florida has won eight of its last nine October home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
The home team has covered the spread in each of Florida’s last four games.
Mississippi State has covered the spread in five of its last six road games.
Six of Mississippi State’s last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Florida ranks 12th among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (88).
Mississippi State ranks 127th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (26:42).
Mississippi State ranks T12th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (8).
David Racey is 70-48 (59%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. Click here for his premium plays for the week!
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 4-2 (0-2) this year after they lost to Texas A&M by a score of 31-9 in their last game. Mississippi State trailed 7-3 at halftime and allowed 24 points in the second half in the lopsided loss. The Bulldogs were out gained by a total of 479-219, went 1-10 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 2-1 in the game. Blake Shapen went 15-20 for 142 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Fluff Bothwell rushed 14 times for 60 yards. Brenen Thompson led the receivers with two receptions for 54 yards and one score in the loss. The Mississippi State defense recorded one sack and two tackles for loss in the game.Mississippi State also has a loss against Tennessee by a score of 41-34, but they do have wins against NIU, Alcorn State, Arizona State, and Southern Miss. The Bulldogs have lost two games in a row and they are last in the SEC in the win column. Mississippi State has scored 33.7 points per game with 211.2 passing yards and 184.3 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 19.8 points against per game this season. Blake Shapen has thrown for 1,201 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions, while Fluff Bothwell has rushed 84 times for 465 yards and six scores this year.
Florida Gators Betting Preview
The Florida Gators are 2-4 (1-2) this season after they lost to Texas A&M by a score of 34-17 last week. Florida tied the game at 14 in the first quarter, but they allowed 20 of the last 23 points in the game for the loss. The Gators were out gained by a total of 417-319, went 1-10 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 2-1 in the game. DJ Lagway went 21-37 for 245 yards and two touchdowns, while Jadan Baugh rushed 18 times for 65 yards. Vernell Brown III led the receivers with six receptions for 77 yards in the loss. The Florida defense recorded zero sacks and zero tackles for loss in the game.Florida also has losses against Miami, LSU, and South Florida, but they did beat LIU and Texas. The Gators have lost four of their last five games and they are currently 11th in the SEC standings. Florida has scored 24.3 points per game with 227.3 passing yards and 120.8 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 19.8 points against per game this season. DJ Lagway has thrown for 1,233 yards, nine touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while Jadan Baugh has rushed for 461 yards and three scores on 94 carries this season.
Why the Florida Gators will win
Mississippi State has lost 17 of its last 18 games against conference opponents.Florida has won eight of its last nine October home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
The home team has covered the spread in each of Florida’s last four games.
Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win
Mississippi State has won four of its last five games against non-AP-ranked teams.Mississippi State has covered the spread in five of its last six road games.
Total Points Facts
Seven of Florida’s last eight games in Florida have gone UNDER the total points line.Six of Mississippi State’s last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
Florida ranks 127th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (31.6).Florida ranks 12th among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (88).
Mississippi State ranks 127th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (26:42).
Mississippi State ranks T12th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (8).
Mississippi State vs Florida Prediction
Both of these teams are coming off of a loss against Texas A&M in their last game, but Mississippi State does have the benefit of coming off of a bye week. Florida has played a very difficult schedule, but they did get a nice win against Texas two weeks ago. Mississippi State has allowed 72 points in their last two games and I think their defense will struggle again here, but I expect their offense to score at least 21 points. Take the over in this contest.David Racey is 70-48 (59%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. Click here for his premium plays for the week!