Michigan State vs USC Prediction 9/20/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

The Michigan State Spartans and the USC Trojans meet in week 4 college football action from the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Michigan State Spartans vs. USC Trojans prediction.

Michigan State Spartans Recap

The Michigan State Spartans come into this game looking to add on to their 41-24 win over Youngstown State last time out to sit at 3-0 on this year. After this game, Michigan State will head on the road for a game against Nebraska.

Spartans Looking For Road Upset

Aidan Chiles has thrown for 656 yards, 6 touchdowns and an interception on 71.6% passing while also rushing for 123 yards and a TD. Makhi Frazier has 206 rushing yards with 2 touchdowns to lead Michigan State while Brandon Tullis has 112 rushing yards with 2 TDs. Nick Marsh leads Michigan State’s receiving group with 16 receptions for 194 yards and 3 touchdowns while Omari Kelly has 15 grabs for 184 yards this season. Michael Masunas also has a pair of receiving TDs as well for Michigan State so far this season. On defense, Jordan Hall leads the Spartans with 27 total tackles including a team-high 14 solo tackles and a pair of sacks while Wayne Matthews III has 24 total tackles and Anelu Lafaele has a pair of sacks as well this season.

USC Trojans Recap

The USC Trojans come into this game looking to add on to their 33-17 win over Purdue in their last game to sit at 3-0 this season. After this game, USC will head on the road for a game against Illinois.

Trojans Looking To Remain Unbeaten At Home

Jayden Maiava has thrown for 989 yards and 6 touchdowns on 68.6% passing while Husan Longstreet’s thrown for 103 yards and a TD on 86.7% passing. Waymond Jordan leads USC in rushing with 286 yards and 3 TDs while King Miller has 152 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns as well. Eli Sanders has 160 rushing yards and he and the aforementioned Longstreet each have a pair of rushing TDs as well. Makai Lemon leads the Trojans in receiving with 16 catches for 311 yards and 2 touchdowns while Ja’Kobi Lane has 239 receiving yards and Lake McRee has 173 receiving yards as well as a touchdown this season. On defense, Eric Gentry has a team-high 21 solo tackles while also logging a team-high 3 sacks. Bishop Fitzgerald has a team-high 3 interceptions while Kameryn Fountain has 2.5 sacks and Braylan Shelby and Anthony Lucas each have a pair of sacks. 

Michigan State Spartans @ USC Trojans Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the USC Trojans will win

• USC has won each of its last 12 September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Michigan State has lost each of its last eight games against AP-ranked teams.
• Michigan State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last eight games.
• USC has covered the spread in each of its last seven games as a favorite in California.
• Michigan State has lost the first half in four of its last five games against conference opponents.

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

• Michigan State has won five of its last seven road openers as an underdog.
• The road team has covered the spread in each of Michigan State’s last five games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Michigan State’s last eight road games against AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of USC’s last four games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

USC Trojans Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, Bishop Fitzgerald ranks T1st amongst FBS players for interceptions (3) this season.

Michigan State Spartans Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, Michael Masunas ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• USC ranks 1st among FBS teams for yards per game this season (604.0).
• USC ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
• Michigan State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
• Michigan State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (1).

Michigan State Spartans vs. USC Trojans Prediction

I’m on USC here. I get that both teams are 3-0, but not all 3-0’s are created equal and I haven’t been overly impressed with Michigan State up to this point. The Trojans have the much more explosive offense in this game, and I’m chalking up last week’s close call with Purdue to the historical problems USC has had when it comes to going east. I think at home, USC proves to be too much and gets the better of Michigan State here. Give me USC in a blowout.