Georgia State vs Vanderbilt Prediction 9/20/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a Georgia State vs Vanderbilt prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 20th at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 4 matchup. 

Georgia State Panthers Betting Preview

The Georgia State Panthers are 1-2 this year after they defeated Murray State by a score of 37-21 in their last game. Georgia State led 14-0 after the first quarter and 23-7 at halftime, but they did tie the second half at 14 in the win. The Panthers out gained Murray State by a total of 454-282, went 5-11 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 3-1 in the win. TJ Finley went 11-18 for 150 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while Cameran Brown went 9-11 for 101 yards and three touchdowns. Branson Robinson rushed eight times for 65 yards, while Ted Hurst caught 10 passes for 172 yards and two scores in the win. The Georgia State defense recorded two sacks and six tackles for loss in the game. 

Georgia State lost their first game against Ole Miss by a score of 63-7 and followed that up with a 38-16 loss to Memphis in week two. The Panthers are averaging 20.0 points per game with 232.3 passing yards and 135.3 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 40.7 points against per game this season. TJ Finley has completed 68.1% of his passes for 351 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. Rashad Amos has rushed for 140 yards and one touchdown on 26 carries, while Ted Hurst has caught 18 passes for 275 yards and two touchdowns this year. 

Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview

The Vanderbilt Commodores are 3-0 this season after they defeated South Carolina by a score of 31-7 last week. Vanderbilt was tied at seven after the first quarter and they led 14-7 at halftime, before pulling away for the easy win in the second half. The Commodores were out gained by a total of 328-323, went 6-12 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 4-1 in the game. Diego Pavia went 18-25 for 177 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while Sedrick Alexander rushed 13 times for 41 yards and one score. Eli Stowers led the receivers with three catches for 45 yards in the game. The Vandy defense recorded two sacks and eight tackles for loss in the win. 

Vanderbilt defeated Charleston Southern by a score of 45-3 in week one and Virginia Tech by a score of 44-20 in week two. The Commodores are averaging 40.0 points per game with 228.3 passing yards and 203.0 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 10.0 points against per game this season. Diego Pavia has completed 73.5% of his passes for 645 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Tre Richardson has caught 12 passes for 162 yards and one score. Sedrick Alexander has led the rushing attack with 35 carries for 197 yards and three touchdowns this year. 

Why Vanderbilt will beat Georgia State

Vanderbilt has won eight of its last nine games against non-conference opponents at FirstBank Stadium.
Georgia State has lost six of its last seven road games.
Georgia State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games.
Vanderbilt has covered the spread in each of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Georgia State has lost the first half in each of its last three road games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

Each of Vanderbilt’s last eight home games in September have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of Georgia State’s last four September games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

Vanderbilt ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
Vanderbilt ranks T2nd among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+12.7).
Georgia State has lost the fourth quarter in each of its last six games – longest active streak in the FBS.
Georgia State ranks T135th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (14.0).

David Racey is 16-9 (64%) in his last 25 College Football plays this season. Click here for his premium plays for this week!

Georgia State vs Vanderbilt Prediction 

Vanderbilt rolls into this contest looking for their fourth straight win to start the season, after they blew out South Carolina on the road last week. The Commodores are led by Diego Pavia, who is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, along with a very strong defense. Georgia State has been outscored 101-23 against Memphis and Ole Miss so far this year, so I don’t have high hopes for them in this one. This game really comes down to how much Vanderbilt wants to win by, but with Utah State on deck, I don’t think they will be looking to rest too many players until late in the game. Take the Commodores to cover here.