Duke (3-2) vs California (4-1)
October 4, 2025 at 10:30 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: California +3 — Over/Under: +56
In this article we will formulate a Duke vs California prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 4th at California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 6 matchup.
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview
The Duke Blue Devils are 3-2 (2-0) this season after they defeated Syracuse by a score of 38-3 last week. Duke led 10-3 after the first quarter and 24-3 at halftime, before pitching a shutout in the second half for the easy win. The Blue Devils out gained Syracuse by a total of 504-314, went 6-13 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a margin of 3-0 in the game. Darian Mensah went 22-28 for 268 yards and two touchdowns, while Nate Sheppard rushed 15 times for 168 yards and two scores. Cooper Barkate led the receivers with four catches for 72 yards and two touchdowns in the win. The Duke defense recorded one sack and five tackles for loss in the game.
In their first four games, Duke defeated Elon and NC State, but lost to Illinois and Tulane. The Blue Devils are averaging 40.8 points per game with 319.0 passing yards and 152.8 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 26.4 points against per game this season. Darian Mensah has completed 69.1% of his passes for 1,573 yards, 13 touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Cooper Barkate has caught 21 passes for 409 yards and three scores. Nate Sheppard has led the ground game with 44 carries for 356 yards and two touchdowns this season.
California Golden Bears Betting Preview
The California Golden Bears are 4-1 (1-0) this year after they defeated Boston College by a score of 28-24 last week. California trailed 17-14 at halftime and 24-21 in the fourth, but they scored the winning touchdown with 1:30 left for the victory. The Golden Bears tied BC in total yardage at 375, went 6-12 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a margin of 2-1 in the game. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele went 22-34 for 254 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while Kendrick Raphael rushed for 119 yards and one touchdown on 25 carries. Trond Grizzell led the receivers with five catches for 78 yards in the game. The Cal defense recorded one sack and one tackle for loss in the victory.
In their first four games, California defeated Oregon State, Texas Southern, and Minnesota, but did lose to San Diego State by a score of 34-0 in their fourth game. The Golden Bears are averaging 27.2 points per game with 257.0 passing yards and 107.8 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 18.0 points against per game this season. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has completed 61.8% of his passes for 1,242 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions, while Trond Grizzell has 20 receptions for 344 yards and one score. Kendrick Raphael has led the rushing attack with 347 yards and two touchdowns on 75 carries this year.
Why Duke will beat California
Duke has won each of its last nine games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
California has lost six of its last seven home games in October.
Duke has covered the spread in each of its last five games against conference opponents.
California has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three home games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
Six of California’s last seven games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Five of Duke’s last six October road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
California ranks 114th among FBS teams for H1 points per game this season (10.4).
California ranks T25th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (5).
Duke ranks 15th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (19.4).
Duke ranks T120th among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (106).
Duke vs California Prediction
Duke was able to dominate Syracuse in their last game to start ACC play with a 2-0 record, but they will have a very difficult road trip to deal with here. The Blue Devils have scored 38 and 45 points in their last two games and Mensah is a very solid quarterback. California laid a huge egg against SDSU two weeks ago, but they bounced back with a nice road win last week. The Golden Bears are a bit inconsistent on offense and I think they will have trouble keeping pace with Mensah and the Duke offense. Take the Blue Devils here.
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