LSU (8-4) vs Baylor (8-4)
Game Info: Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 3:30 pm (NRG Stadium)
The Line: Betting Odds: LSU +1 / Baylor -1 — Over/Under: 59.5
The Baylor Bears and the LSU Tigers meet Tuesday in Texas Bowl college football action from NRG Stadium. Here’s a Baylor vs LSU prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Baylor vs LSU pick. We will examine:
The Baylor Bears recent form and player performance
The LSU Tigers recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Baylor Bears
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the LSU Tigers
Recent betting trends in games played between Baylor and LSU
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Baylor vs LSU game
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
The Bears got off to a rough start this year, falling to Utah, Colorado, BYU and Iowa State in their first six outings. Baylor has since won six straight however, taking out Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, West Virginia, Houston and Kansas in that time.
In the Kansas matchup back on November 30, the Bears came out of halftime with a 21-10 edge. Baylor scored 21 points in the third quarter and cruised to the blowout win 45-17. Sawyer Robertson threw for 310 yards and four scores, while Bryson Washington rushed 28 times for 192 yards and two TDs of his own.
LSU Tigers Betting Preview
Over on the LSU side, they beat USC, Nicholls, South Carolina, UCLA, South Alabama, Ole Miss and Arkansas in their first seven before losses to Texas A&M, Alabama and Florida. The Tigers finished off with wins over Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, though.
On November 30 in the Oklahoma game, the Tigers put up points in every quarter on the way to a 37-17 win. Garrett Nussmeier finished with 277 yards and three scores. Chris Hilton was the top receiver with his two catches for 85 yards and two touchdowns.
Why the LSU Tigers will win
- The underdog has won eight of Baylor’s last nine Bowl games.
- Baylor has lost three of its last four games as a favorite at neutral venues.
- Baylor has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three Bowl games as a favorite.
- LSU has covered the spread in six of its last eight games in December.
Why the Baylor Bears will win
- Baylor has won each of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Baylor has covered the spread in each of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- LSU has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games at neutral venues.
Total Points Facts
- Each of LSU’s last six Bowl games have gone OVER the total points line
- Four of Baylor’s last five games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- LSU ranks 12th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (32:14).
- LSU ranks 13th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (38.9).
- Baylor ranks T17th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+4.0).
- Baylor ranks T20th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (4.7).
Baylor vs LSU Prediction
I’m going to stay with Baylor. This should be a pretty fun matchup, though. The Bears took care of Kansas—a team that’s much better than their 5-7 record would indicate—quite well in their last outing. Baylor amassed 32 first downs and 603 total yards (310 passing) in that one, bagging three takeaways on defense to boot. During this current six-game win streak, the Bears have scored 37 or more points in all but one outing.
As for LSU, they hung 395 total yards (285 passing) on Oklahoma in their most recent game. The Tigers did pretty well on defense also with 277 yards and 17 first downs allowed. This year LSU averages 29.8 points per game with 315.3 yards per game coming via the pass. The Tigers aren’t necessarily as strong on the run however (116.6 yards per game) so it may be difficult for them to keep Baylor off the field. The Bears have a good enough offense that I think they’ll be able to power out a cover/win here. It’ll be a great game to watch regardless.