Iowa vs Missouri Prediction College Football Picks 12/30/24

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Iowa Hawkeyes

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Missouri Tigers

Recent betting trends in games played between Iowa and Missouri

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Iowa vs Missouri game

Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview

The Hawkeyes opened on a shaky 4-3 run through their first seven games this year, losing to Iowa State, Ohio State and Michigan along the way. Iowa managed to close on a 4-1 run though, with wins over Northwestern, Wisconsin, Maryland and Nebraska (and a lone loss to UCLA).

In the Nebraska game on November 29, the Hawkeyes faced a 10-0 deficit going into the second half. Iowa did all the scoring from there, rallying for a 13-10 victory. Jackson Stratton posted 115 pass yards and a TD, while Kaleb Johnson added 17 carries for 45 yards as the leading rusher.

Missouri Tigers Betting Preview

Over on the Missouri side, they went 6-2 over their first eight games with wins over Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College, Vanderbilt, UMass and Auburn. The Tigers closed out on a 3-1 stretch featuring wins over Oklahoma, Mississippi State and Arkansas alongside a lone loss to South Carolina.

In the Arkansas matchup back on November 30, the Tigers were in trouble with a 14-10 deficit going into the fourth. Missouri hit an 18-7 advantage from there in a 28-21 comeback win. Brady Cook threw for 168 yards on 10-of-20 passing, and Marcus Carroll carried 22 times for 90 yards and two scores.

Why the Missouri Tigers will win

• Missouri has won each of its last nine games against non-conference opponents.
• Iowa has lost each of its last eight games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams.
• Iowa has failed to cover the spread in each of its last eight games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams.
• Missouri has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.

Why the Iowa Hawkeyes will win

• Missouri has lost three of its last four December games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Iowa has won four of its last five games.
• Missouri has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four December games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Iowa has covered the spread in six of its last eight games in December.

Total Points Facts

• Twelve of Iowa's last 13 games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Missouri's last five Bowl games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Missouri is one of only 15 FBS teams undefeated in home games this season ((7-0)).
• Missouri ranks T15th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (4.6).
• Iowa ranks 131st among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (131.6).
• Iowa ranks 7th among FBS teams for H1 opponent points per game this season (7.8).

Iowa vs Missouri Prediction

I’ll stay with Missouri. The Tigers posted a nice comeback win over a decent Arkansas team in their last outing, notching 361 total yards and 18 first downs along the way. Missouri has scored 28 or more points in four straight outings now, bringing their average to 29.1 points per game this season. The Tigers’ strength—relatively speaking—is the rush. They’re averaging 170.8 yards on the ground per game and have scored 25 times via the run. If Missouri can get that part of their offense established early, they’ll be in good shape.

As for Iowa, they’re coming off an improbable victory versus Nebraska. The Hawkeyes won that one despite an ugly 164 total yards, five first downs and an 0-of-10 success rate on third downs. The Hawkeyes have been great on defense overall; they’ve held opponents to fewer than 17 points in seven of their eight wins. That said, good offenses can still find ways to score on Iowa, as evidenced by the Ohio State (35) and Michigan State (32) games. Missouri may not quite reach those heights here but I think the Tigers have the tools for a cover/win.