Texas vs Michigan Prediction College Football Picks 9/7/24

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Texas Longhorns

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Michigan Wolverines

Recent betting trends in games played between Texas and Michigan

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Texas vs Michigan game

Texas Longhorns Betting Preview

The Longhorns bagged a Big 12 championship last season, going 12-2 overall and 8-1 in the conference. In the championship game, Texas beat Oklahoma State 49-21, but their season ended on a tough Sugar Bowl loss to Washington 37-31.

In game one of the 2024 season, Texas played Colorado State. The Longhorns put up points in every quarter during a 52-0 blowout victory. Quinn Ewers logged 260 yards with three scores and a pick. Ryan Wingo led the receivers on 70 yards off four grabs. Texas will play against UTSA following this one.

Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview

Over on the Wolverines’ side, they’re coming off an epic 2023 that will be hard to duplicate anytime soon. Michigan went 15-0 overall and 9-0 in the Big Ten, winning the conference championship 26-0 over Iowa, the Rose Bowl 27-20 (OT) versus Alabama, and the CFP National Championship 34-13 against Washington.

Matched up against Fresno State back on Saturday, the Wolverines notched 17 points in the final quarter during a 30-10 win. QB Davis Warren bagged 118 yards, one TD, and one interception. Colston Loveland caught eight passes for 87 yards and a score of his own.

Why the Michigan Wolverines will win

• Michigan has won each of its last 26 September games at Michigan Stadium.
• Michigan has covered the spread in each of its last five games against AP-ranked teams.
• Texas has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games against top-15 AP-ranked teams.

Why the Texas Longhorns will win

• The favorite has won each of Michigan's last 16 games at Michigan Stadium.
• The team ranked 10th in the AP Poll has lost each of its last three games.
• Michigan has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five home games in September.
• Texas has covered the spread in each of its last four September games against AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Michigan's last six games against top-15 AP-ranked teams at Michigan Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of Texas' last four games as a favorite against AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Michigan rank T1st among FBS teams for Q1 win percentage this season (1.000).
• Michigan rank T1st among FBS teams for Q3 win percentage this season (1.000).
• Texas rank T1st among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
• Texas rank T1st among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (0.0).

Texas vs Michigan Prediction

I’m going to lean toward Texas. There’s obviously an argument to be made either way here, though; it’ll be an interesting matchup. The Longhorns outmatched the Rams across the board in their Week 1 blowout. Texas collected 545 total yards (355 passing), 7.4 yards per play, and 26 first downs. On defense, the Longhorns gave up just 192 yards (74 passing), 11 first downs, and 3.4 yards per play.

As for Michigan, they weren’t especially dominant on offense. The Wolverines had a tepid 269 total yards (121 passing), 18 first downs, and a 4-of-11 rate on third-down conversions. The defense held things down well on the other side though, specifically through the run game (nine yards allowed). Dealing with the Longhorns’ passing attack is going to be a tall order however, and I don’t think the Wolverines will quite cover/win. Should be a great game, though.