Michigan State vs Maryland Prediction College Football Picks 9/7/24

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Michigan State Spartans

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Maryland Terrapins

Recent betting trends in games played between Michigan State and Maryland

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Michigan State vs Maryland game

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

The Spartans finished a disappointing 4-8 overall last year and went just 2-7 in a tough Big Ten. Michigan State would finish just one spot out of the basement in the East Division with that record, ahead of only Indiana.

The good news for Michigan State is that they kicked off the 2024 campaign with a win over Florida Atlantic. The Spartans didn’t score in the second half but held on for a 16-10 result. QB Aidan Chiles had 114 yards and two picks, while Kay’Ron Adams had 101 rush yards and a score.

Maryland Terrapins Betting Preview

Over on the Maryland side, they did better last season with an 8-5 overall run and a 4-5 Big Ten record. The Terrapins finished behind Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State in the East Division. In their Music City Bowl appearance versus Auburn, Maryland won 31-13.

Matched up against UConn on Saturday, the Terrapins scored 14 points in both the first and fourth quarters during a 50-7 rout. Billy Edwards threw for 311 yards and two scores. Tai Felton did most of the receiving work with seven catches for 178 yards and two TDs.

Why the Maryland Terrapins will win

• Maryland has won each of its last 10 September home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Michigan State has lost 10 of its last 12 road games.
• Michigan State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Maryland has covered the spread in each of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

• Michigan State has won four of its last six road openers as an underdog.
• Maryland has lost each of its last three games against conference opponents at SECU Stadium.
• Michigan State has covered the spread in five of its last six matches when playing with a rest advantage.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Michigan State's last four games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of Maryland's last five games as a home favorite have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Maryland rank T1st among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
• Maryland rank T1st among FBS teams for H1 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
• Michigan State rank T1st among FBS teams for Q1 win percentage this season (1.000).
• Michigan State rank T1st among FBS teams for Q2 win percentage this season (1.000).

Michigan State vs Maryland Prediction

I’m staying with Maryland. The Terrapins looked to be in midseason form against UConn, bagging 629 total yards (381 passing), 29 first downs, and no turnovers. If there’s a gripe about the offense it’s the sketchy 6-of-16 rate on third-down conversions but during a blowout with lots of bench time that doesn’t matter so much.

As for Michigan State, they won their first game almost in spite of themselves. The Spartans did well on defense, holding FAU to 2-of-15 on third downs. That said, Michigan State also committed 12 penalties and had three turnovers—not to mention a 3-of-13 third-down effort. I don’t think the Spartans will compete too closely here.