New Mexico State vs Fresno State Prediction - College Football Picks 12/16/23

Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) vs New Mexico State Aggies (10-4)

Game Info: Saturday, December 16, 2023 at 5:45 pm (University Stadium)

Betting Odds: Fresno State Bulldogs +3.5 -- Over/Under: 51 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The New Mexico State Aggies and Fresno State Bulldogs face off on Saturday in a college football showdown in the New Mexico Bowl at University Stadium. Let’s look at the betting matchup and give a free New Mexico State vs Fresno State prediction.

New Mexico State Coming Off A Lost

New Mexico State faced off against Liberty in the Conference USA Championship Game and they were defeated 35-49. The offense sure was impressive, but the defense didn’t give them much of a shot, and the defense is going to need to be better. Diego Pavia completed 11 of his 166 passes for 188 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. New Mexico State comes into this game with a 10-4 record overall. New Mexico State on the season is averaging 28.7 points while their defense is giving up 21.8 points per game. 

New Mexico State Betting Trends

  • New Mexico State has won nine of its last 10 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • New Mexico State has covered the spread in 11 of its last 12 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • New Mexico State has won the first half in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
  • New Mexico State has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against opponents from the Mountain West Conference.
  • Five of New Mexico State's last six games against opponents from the Mountain West Conference have gone UNDER the total points line.

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Fresno State Has Lost Three Straight Games

Fresno State has lost three straight games and the offense has been an issue heading into this game. In each of the last three games, Fresno State has scored 18 points or less. In the last game against San Diego State, Fresno State lost 33-18. Mike Keene completed 21 of his 36 passes for 190 yards, one interception, and zero touchdowns. Keene has also had a big season this year throwing for 2,596 yards, 21 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Fresno State on the season is averaging 29.9 points while their defense is giving up 24.6 points per game. 

Fresno State Betting Trends

  • Fresno State has won three of its last four games as an underdog.
  • Fresno State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Fresno State has won the first quarter in each of its last three games against non-conference opponents.
  • Fresno State has won the first half in each of its last three games against non-conference opponents.
  • Three of Fresno State's last four games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

New Mexico State vs Fresno State Betting Prediction

New Mexico State is going to get the job done here with ease. New Mexico State’s offense scored 35 points and they are going to find success scoring here. Keene has had a good season but they are going to really struggle to get the offense going here. New Mexico State is going to put on a show here with the offense and that will be the difference as they are going to cover the spread. Back New Mexico State against the spread. 

Shane’s Pick New Mexico State -3.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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