New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction - College Football Picks 12/1/23

Liberty Flames (12-0) vs New Mexico State Aggies (10-3)

Game Info: Friday, December 1, 2023 at 7:00 pm (Williams Stadium)

Betting Odds: Liberty Flames -10.5 -- Over/Under: 56.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The New Mexico State Aggies will play the Liberty Flames on Friday night in the C-USA Championship Game at Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, Virginia. New Mexico State only has one conference loss on the season, while Liberty comes into this game undefeated. Let’s take a look at the betting matchup and New Mexico State vs Liberty prediction. 

New Mexico State Preview

The New Mexico State Aggies are 10-3 (7-1) this year after they defeated Jacksonville State by a score of 20-17 in their last game. New Mexico State led 17-3 at halftime, but they were tied at 17 with under a minute left, before kicking a field goal as time expired for the win. The Aggies out gained Jacksonville State by a total of 455-333 and turned the ball over four times in the game. New Mexico State’s three losses this season came against UMass, Liberty, and Hawaii. The Aggies have won eight games in a row since their loss to Hawaii. The New Mexico State offense is scoring 28.2 points per game with 217.4 passing yards per game and 205.8 rushing yards per game, while going 43.2% on third downs. Diego Pavia has thrown for 2,727 yards, 23 touchdowns, and eight interceptions for the Aggies this season, while also rushing for 806 yards and five touchdowns. Star Thomas has rushed for 604 yards and four touchdowns, while Jonathan Brady has caught 33 passes for 518 yards and three scores. The New Mexico State defense is allowing 19.7 points against per game this year. 

Liberty Preview

The Liberty Flames are 12-0 (8-0) this season after they defeated UTEP by a score of 42-28 in their last game. Liberty led 35-7 in the fourth quarter, but they did allow 21 points in the final quarter to make the game much closer. The Flames out gained UTEP by a total of 469-271 and turned the ball over three times in the game. Liberty has been rolling on offense in recent games, as they have scored at least 38 points in six straight games. The Liberty offense is averaging 40.1 points per game with 203.1 passing yards per game and 295.4 rushing yards per game, while going 50% on third downs. Kaidon Salter has thrown for 2,431 yards, 29 touchdowns, and five interceptions for the Flames, while also rushing for 899 yards and 11 touchdowns. Quinton Cooley has rushed for 1,251 yards and 13 scores, while CJ Daniels has caught 40 passes for 831 yards and nine touchdowns. The Liberty defense is giving up 21.7 points against per game this season. 

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Liberty Flames Team Facts

  • Liberty has won each of its last 12 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • The favorite has covered the spread in three of the last four games between New Mexico State and Liberty.
  • Liberty has won the first half in six of its last eight games against conference opponents.
  • Five of Liberty's last six games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

New Mexico State Aggies Team Facts

  • New Mexico State has won each of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • New Mexico State has covered the spread in each of its last 10 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Seven of New Mexico State's last eight games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Liberty are one of only 14 FBS teams undefeated in home games this season ((7-0)).
  • Liberty rank T35th among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (21.7).

New Mexico State vs Liberty Betting Prediction

Liberty comes into this game with a perfect 12-0 record and they are ranked #24 in the country, while New Mexico State has only lost one game in conference and has won eight games in a row. Liberty defeated New Mexico State by a score of 33-17 in their first meeting, where Liberty out gained them by a total of 526-339. New Mexico State did have a 17-13 lead in the second quarter, but Liberty scored the last 20 points in the game. Liberty has been scoring a ton of points in recent games, but New Mexico State is playing very well right now, including a 31-10 win at Auburn. I think Liberty will get the win, but I am going to take the points with New Mexico State. 

David’s Pick New Mexico State +10.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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