UNLV vs Air Force Prediction - College Football Picks 11/18/23

Air Force Falcons (8-2) vs UNLV Rebels (8-2)

Game Info: Saturday, November 18, 2023 at 3:30 pm (Falcon Stadium)

Betting Odds: Air Force Falcons -3 -- Over/Under: 47.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The UNLV Rebels will play the Air Force Falcons in a Mountain West game on Saturday afternoon at Falcon Stadium in USAF Academy, Colorado. Both of these teams come into this matchup with only one conference loss, so the winner of this game will be in first place in the conference. 

UNLV Preview

The UNLV Rebels are 8-2 (5-1) this season after they defeated Wyoming by a score of 34-14 last week. UNLV led 21-0 in the first quarter and they were able to pull away in the second half for the win. The Rebels out gained Wyoming by a total of 397-297 and forced two turnovers in the win. UNLV only has two losses this season, which came against Michigan and Fresno State. The UNLV offense is scoring 36.4 points per game with 226.1 passing yards per game and 195.7 rushing yards per game, while going 53.8% on third downs. Jayden Maiava has thrown for 2,060 yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions for the Rebels this season. Vincent Davis Jr. has rushed for 553 yards and four touchdowns, while Ricky White has caught 62 passes for 1,020 yards and six scores. The UNLV defense is allowing 24.3 points against per game this year. 

Air Force Preview

The Air Force Falcons are 8-2 (5-1) this season after they lost to Hawaii by a score of 27-13 last week. Air Force trailed 13-3 at halftime, but cut the lead to 13-10 in the third quarter, before Hawaii put the game away. The Falcons out gained Hawaii by a total of 315-297, but they turned the ball over four times in the loss. Air Force also lost to Army by a score of 23-3 in the game prior to Hawaii. The Air Force offense is scoring 29.1 points per game with 86.9 passing yards per game and 275.9 rushing yards per game, while going 49.6% on third downs. Jensen Jones has thrown for 125 yards and one interception for the Falcons this year. Emmanuel Michel has rushed for 733 yards and nine scores, while Jared Roznos (questionable) has caught 11 passes for 332 yards and two touchdowns. The Air Force defense is giving up 15.7 points against per game this season.

Air Force Falcons Team Facts

  • Air Force has won 13 of its last 14 games against non-AP-ranked teams at Falcon Stadium.
  • Air Force has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Air Force has won the first half in four of its last five games against conference opponents at Falcon Stadium.
  • Each of Air Force's last four games as a favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.

UNLV Rebels Team Facts

  • UNLV has lost each of its last 12 away matches when playing with a rest advantage.
  • UNLV has covered the spread in each of its last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • UNLV has won the first half in each of its last four road games against conference opponents.
  • Three of UNLV's last four games as a road underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • UNLV has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (2).


This should be a very entertaining game to watch between the two top teams in the Mountain West so far this year. Air Force started the season 8-0, but they have looked pretty bad in their last two games against Hawaii and Army. UNLV has out scored their last two opponents by a total of 90-28, but their last loss did come on the road at Fresno State. I really like the UNLV offense and I think they will score plenty of points, but I don’t know how they are going to hold up against the Air Force rushing attack. I think we are going to see a back and forth game with plenty of points, so I like the over in this matchup. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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