Texas State vs Arkansas State Prediction - College Football Picks 11/18/23

Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-5) vs Texas State Bobcats (6-4)

Game Info: Saturday, November 18, 2023 at 3:00 pm (Centennial Bank Stadium)

Betting Odds: Arkansas State Red Wolves +3.5 -- Over/Under: 59.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Texas State Bobcats and Arkansas State Red Wolves face off on Saturday in a college football showdown at Centennial Bank Stadium. 

Texas State Looks to Bounce Back

Texas State comes into this game with a 6-4 record overall but they are coming off a loss in the last game. Texas State faced off against Coastal Carolina and they scored only 23 points on the way to the defeat. TJ Finley has had a solid season, but in the last game he only threw for 49 yards. Ismail Mahdi had 21 carries for 97 yards. Texas State on the season is averaging 34.9 points while their defense is giving up 28.5 points per game. In this game the offense needs to be better. 

Texas State Betting Trends

  • Texas State has lost eight of its last nine November road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Texas State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Texas State has won the first quarter in each of its last three road games against conference opponents.
  • Texas State has lost the first half in three of its last four games against conference opponents at Centennial Bank Stadium.
  • Four of Texas State's last five games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Arkansas State Looks to Become Bowl Eligible 

Arkansas State sits with a 5-5 record overall and a win here will get them bowl eligible. In the last game against South Alabama, Arkansas State scored only 14 points and they ended up losing by seven points. Jaylen Raynor completed 15 of his 28 passes for 186 yards, one touchdown, and an interception. They only scored six points in the first three quarters, and they need a faster starter here. Arkansas State is averaging 23.5 points while their defense is giving up 30.8 points per game. 

Arkansas State Betting Trends

  • Arkansas State has lost 10 of its last 13 games in November.
  • Arkansas State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six home games in November.
  • Arkansas State has won the first half in three of its last four games against conference opponents at Centennial Bank Stadium.
  • Seven of Arkansas State's last eight November games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Shane’s Free Pick

Arkansas State is going to find success here. Finley really struggled in his last start and I don’t expect it’s going to be much better here. Arkansas State’s offense is going to get out to a faster start. Texas State is giving up almost 30 points per game, and they are going to really struggle to slow down the Arkansas State offense. At home, they are going to become bowl eligible here. Back Arkansas State against the spread. 

Shane’s Pick Arkansas State +3.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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