SMU vs Memphis Prediction - College Football Picks 11/18/23

Memphis Tigers (8-2) vs SMU Mustangs (8-2)

Game Info: Saturday, November 18, 2023 at 12:00 pm (Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium)

Betting Odds: Memphis Tigers +8.5 -- Over/Under: 65.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The SMU Mustangs will play the Memphis Tigers in an AAC game on Saturday afternoon at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee. SMU is undefeated in conference play, while Memphis only has one loss in the AAC so far this year. 

SMU Preview

The SMU Mustangs are 8-2 (6-0) this season after they defeated North Texas by a score of 45-21 in their last game. SMU led 17-14 at halftime and they were able to add 28 points in the second half for the easy win. The Mustangs out gained North Texas by a total of 552-372 and forced two turnovers in the game. SMU’s two losses this season have come against Oklahoma by a score of 28-11 and TCU by a score of 34-17. The SMU offense is averaging 39.9 points per game with 284.8 passing yards per game and 188.5 rushing yards per game, while going 44.2% on third downs. Preston Stone has thrown for 2,589 yards, 23 touchdowns, and six interceptions for the Mustangs this year. Jaylan Knighton has rushed for 640 yards and five touchdowns, while Jake Bailey has caught 32 passes for 414 yards. The SMU defense is giving up 16.4 points against per game this year. 

Memphis Preview

The Memphis Tigers are 8-2 (5-1) this year after they defeated Charlotte in overtime by a score of 44-38 in their last game. Memphis trailed 17-14 at the half and 31-21 in the fourth quarter, but they were able to force overtime and get the win. The Tigers out gained Charlotte by a total of 430-391 and both teams turned the ball over four times in the game. Memphis’ lone loss in the conference this year came against Tulane by a score of 31-21. The Memphis offense is scoring 39.1 points per game with 296.5 passing yards per game and 155.8 rushing yards per game, while going 42.4% on third downs. Seth Henigan has thrown for 2,864 yards, 22 touchdowns, and eight interceptions for the Tigers this season. Blake Watson has rushed for 909 yards and 12 scores, while Roc Taylor has caught 50 passes for 779 yards and four touchdowns. The Memphis defense is allowing 28.9 points against per game this season.

Memphis Tigers Team Facts

  • Memphis has won 14 of its last 15 matches at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium when playing with a rest disadvantage.
  • Memphis has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Memphis has won the first half in three of its last four games against conference opponents at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
  • Seven of Memphis' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.

SMU Mustangs Team Facts

  • SMU has won each of its last seven games against conference opponents.
  • SMU has failed to cover the spread in 13 of its last 14 road games in November.
  • SMU has won the first quarter in six of its last seven road games against conference opponents.
  • SMU has won the first half in each of its last three road games against conference opponents.
  • Three of SMU's last four games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Memphis has scored 35+ points in four road games this season - most of any FBS team.
  • The SMU are one of only 24 FBS teams undefeated in home games this season ([z-0]).
  • The SMU have recorded the largest margin of victory in a road game this season (55-points vs Temple on October 20, 2023).

Pick

This should be a fantastic game to watch between two very high scoring AAC teams, but Memphis will be at home for this matchup. SMU is undefeated in conference play and is in a three-way tie for first with UTSA and Tulane. The Mustangs defense may be the difference in this game, as they are only allowing 16.4 points against per game this year, while Memphis is giving up 28.9 points. Both of these offenses are electric and I think we are going to see a shootout in this game, but SMU will get one more stop. I think SMU wins the game, but Memphis will keep it within one score. Take the Tigers here. 

David’s Pick Memphis +8.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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