New Mexico at Fresno State Prediction - College Football Picks 11/18/23

Fresno State Bulldogs (8-2) vs New Mexico Lobos (3-7)

Game Info: Saturday, November 18, 2023 at 10:30 pm (Valley Children's Stadium)

Betting Odds: Fresno State Bulldogs -24 -- Over/Under: 56.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Fresno State Bulldogs will host the New Mexico Lobos this weekend in Mountain West play from Valley Children’s Stadium on FS1.

New Mexico Lobos Preview

New Mexico fell to 3-7 after losing to Boise State on the road, 42-14. The Lobos were blitzed by the Broncos en route to a massive defeat, and they’ll look to show more fight here in Fresno.  The UNM offense is scoring 29.9 ppg, while passing for 188.3 ypg, rushing for 122.9 ypg, and converting 43.2% of their third downs.

UNM Player Notes

Dylan Hopkins came through with his best start as a Lobo against Hawaii, l going 20/25 for 202 yards, with three touchdown passes. The former UAB quarterback turned back the clock last week at home, and he’ll have a good chance to double down against a vulnerable Nevada defense. Hopkins has passed for 1,367 yards, with ten touchdowns to three interceptions over seven games.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt has scored multiple touchdowns in three of the last four games, and he leads UNM in rushing yards (545) and touchdowns (11). 

Senior wideout Jeremiah Hixon returned and scored twice in the win over Hawaii, and he leads the team in catches (22) with 220 receiving yards.

The UNM defense has allowed 32.5 points per game.


Fresno State Bulldogs Preview

Fresno State improved to 8-2 after falling to San Jose State on the road, 42-18. The Bulldogs had no answers for their in-state rivals early and often, and they’ll look to rebound swiftly here in the Valley. The Fresno offense is scoring 34.0 ppg, while passing for 297.7 ypg, rushing for 109.3 ypg, and converting 50.4% of their third downs.

Fresno State Player Notes

Mikey Keene played well in Boise last week, passing for 290 yards and a touchdown. The former UCF quarterback has eased the loss of longtime QB Jake Haener, and he’ll look to lead Fresno to another victory this Saturday. Keene has passed for 2,238 yards with 20 touchdowns to seven interceptions thru eight games.

Junior back Malik Sherrod dashed for a season-high 132 yards in win over the Broncos, and he’s up to 620 yards on 109 carries for the season. 

Senior wideout Erik Brooks found the endzone last weekend, and he leads Fresno in receiving yards (565) on 45 catches. 

The Fresno defense has allowed 21.6 points per game.


New Mexico vs Fresno State Trends

UNM is 4-6 against the spread, with a 8-2 O/U record. 

FRES is 4-6 ATS, with a 6-3-1 over/under record.

Corey’s Free Pick

San Jose State left a sour taste in Fresno State’s mouth, and New Mexico may wind up being on the wrong side of that. Both schools were picked apart last week, but with a conference crown in sight, I like trusting the Bulldogs to bounce back here at home. New Mexico has allowed 98 points in their last two games, and they may have already checked out for the season honestly. It’s a massive number in a late spot, but if you’re approaching this one, back a big Fresno win for this Mountain West matchup. Both teams carry positive Over trends as well, so that may provide an alternative route for this battle in the Valley.

Corey’s Pick Fresno State to Cover

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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