Baylor vs TCU Prediction - College Football Picks 11/18/23

TCU Horned Frogs (4-6) vs Baylor Bears (3-7)

Game Info: Saturday, November 18, 2023 at 3:30 pm (Amon G. Carter Stadium)

Betting Odds: TCU Horned Frogs -12.5 -- Over/Under: 58.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Baylor Bears will play the TCU Horned Frogs in a Big 12 game on Saturday afternoon at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. Baylor has lost three games in a row, while TCU has also dropped three straight. 

Baylor Preview

The Baylor Bears are 3-7 (2-5) this season after they lost to Kansas State by a score of 59-25 last week. Baylor trailed 35-13 at the half and they never had a chance in this game. The Bears were out gained by a total of 451-332 and turned the ball over four times in the loss. Baylor only has two FBS wins this season, which came against UCF and Cincinnati by a combined four points. The Baylor offense is scoring 22.9 points per game with 274.2 passing yards per game and 111.1 rushing yards per game, while going 36.4% on third downs. Blake Shapen has thrown for 1,991 yards, 12 touchdowns, and three interceptions for the Bears this season. Dominic Richardson has rushed for 428 yards, while Monaray Baldwin has caught 35 passes for 592 yards and four scores. The Baylor defense is giving up 32.4 points against per game this year. 

TCU Preview

The TCU Horned Frogs are 4-6 (2-5) this year after they lost to Texas by a score of 29-26 in their last game. TCU trailed 26-6 in the fourth quarter, but they did score 20 points in the final quarter to make it close. The Horned Frogs were out gained by a total of 482-390 and turned the ball over two times in the loss. TCU has only won one of their last six games, which came against BYU by a score of 44-11. The TCU offense is averaging 28.9 points per game with 297.1 passing yards per game and 157.8 rushing yards per game, while going 44.3% on third downs. Josh Hoover has thrown for 1,450 yards, nine touchdowns, and eight interceptions for the Horned Frogs this season. Emani Bailey has rushed for 1,006 yards and five scores, while Savion Williams has caught 36 passes for 474 yards and four touchdowns. The TCU defense is allowing 24.8 points against per game this season.

TCU Horned Frogs Team Facts

  • TCU has won seven of its last eight games against Baylor.
  • The home team has covered the spread in six of TCU's last seven games.
  • TCU has won the first half in four of its last five games against conference opponents at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
  • Five of TCU's last six games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Baylor Bears Team Facts

  • Baylor has won six of its last nine games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Baylor has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games in November.
  • Baylor has lost the first half in each of its last three games against conference opponents.
  • Each of Baylor's last seven games as a road underdog have gone OVER the total points line.


Both of these teams are in the bottom half of the Big 12 standings with only two conference wins, but TCU is still fighting for a bowl berth and will be at home for this game. TCU has been close in their last two games, but couldn’t get the job done against Texas or Texas Tech. Baylor is coming off of a blowout loss at Kansas State and they cannot be in a good spot mentally. I think TCU is going to get a big win at home to keep their bowl hopes alive for another week. Take TCU here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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