New Mexico vs Boise State Prediction - College Football Picks 11/11/23

Boise State Broncos (4-5) vs New Mexico Lobos (3-6)

Game Info: Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 10:00 pm (Albertsons Stadium)

Betting Odds: Boise State Broncos -26.5 -- Over/Under: 60.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The New Mexico Lobos will play the Boise State Broncos in a Mountain West game on Saturday night at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. New Mexico only has one conference win so far this year, while Boise State has lost two of their last three games. 

New Mexico Preview

The New Mexico Lobos are 3-6 (1-4) this season after they lost to UNLV by a score of 56-14 last week. New Mexico trailed 35-7 at the half and things didn’t get any better in the second half for the loss. The Lobos were out gained by a total of 416-362 and turned the ball over two times in the game. New Mexico’s only conference win this season came against Hawaii by a score of 42-21. The New Mexico offense is scoring 30.1 points per game with 225.6 passing yards per game and 167.4 rushing yards per game, while going 40% on third downs. Dylan Hopkins has thrown for 1,825 yards, 11 touchdowns, and seven interceptions for the Lobos this year. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has rushed for 675 yards and 12 scores, while Jeremiah Hixon has caught 30 passes for 355 yards and five touchdowns. The New Mexico defense is allowing 35.3 points against per game this season.

Boise State Preview

The Boise State Broncos are 4-5 (3-2) this year after they lost to Fresno State by a score of 37-30 in their last game. Boise State trailed 20-10 at the half and they couldn’t find enough stops in the second half for the loss. The Broncos out gained Fresno State by a total of 488-441, but they turned the ball over twice in the game. Boise State has conference wins over Wyoming, San Jose State, and San Diego State. The Boise State offense is averaging 30 points per game with 241 passing yards per game and 193.3 rushing yards per game, while going 45.9% on third downs. Maddux Madsen has thrown for 989 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions for the Broncos this season. Ashton Jeanty (questionable) has rushed for 921 yards and 11 scores, while Eric McAlister has caught 47 passes for 873 yards and five touchdowns. The Boise State defense is giving up 28.9 points against per game this year.

Boise State Broncos Team Facts

  • Boise State has won 11 of its last 12 November home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Boise State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight home games against conference opponents.
  • Six of Boise State's last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

New Mexico Lobos Team Facts

  • New Mexico has lost each of its last 23 November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in each of its last 11 games in November.
  • New Mexico has lost the first half in each of its last three games against conference opponents at Albertsons Stadium.
  • Each of New Mexico's last six games as an underdog have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Boise State has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (2).


Boise State has alternated wins and losses over their last six games and they have struggled in conference play more than usual. The Broncos have had a few very close losses this season and if a couple of more plays went their way, they could have six or seven wins. New Mexico only has one conference win and their defense has been abused this season. Boise State is still a very good team, despite their record, and I like them to win big here. 

David’s Pick Boise State -26.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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