Miami-FL at Florida State Prediction - College Football Picks 11/11/23

Florida State Seminoles (9-0) vs Miami-FL Hurricanes (6-3)

Game Info: Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 3:30 pm (Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium)

Betting Odds: Florida State Seminoles -15.5 -- Over/Under: 50 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Miami Hurricanes will head up to Tallahassee to face the Florida State Seminoles in ACC play from Doak Campbell Stadium on ABC. Florida State and Miami have met in nearly every season since 1951, even ironically meeting in the 2004 Orange Bowl. Miami holds the all-time series lead, 35-32, but FSU has won the last two meetings, including last year’s in South Beach by a big number, 45-3.

Miami (FL) Hurricanes Preview

Miami moved to 6-3 after losing to N.C. State in Raleigh, 20-6. The Hurricanes failed to score in the second half, and they’ll face an uphill battle here if their offensive struggles continue. The Miami offense is scoring 32.1 ppg, while passing for 261.3 ypg, rushing for 176.6 ypg, and converting 43.1% of their third downs.

Miami Player Notes

• Tyler Van Dyke struggled again in his second game back from injury, only going 21/38 for 173 yards with three costly interceptions. The game was within reach for the Canes last week, but the junior quarterback simply hasn’t looked like himself since returning, and he could be in for a long night here. Van Dyke has passed for 2,507 yards, with 16 touchdowns to 11 interceptions thru eight starts.

• Freshman back Mark Fletcher Jr. broke through with a career-best 115 yards in loss to the Wolfpack, and he’s up to 295 yards on 58 touches for the season.

• Third-year wideout Xavier Restrepo was held below five catches for just the second time this season against N.C. State, but he’s still first on the team in receptions (60) and receiving yards (684).

• The Miami defense has allowed 20.0 points per game.

Florida State Seminoles Preview

Florida State improved to 9-0 after defeating Pittsburgh on the road, 41-3. The Seminoles overcame a slow start to remain unblemished, and they’ll look to flex their muscles here against their Sunshine state foes. The FSU offense is scoring 39.6 ppg, while passing for 293.9 ypg, rushing for 164.4 ypg, and converting 43.2% of their third downs.

FSU Player Notes

• Jordan Travis did just enough to get FSU out of PA with a victory, finishing with 360 yards and a touchdown toss. The senior QB has also found the endzone on the ground in four straight games, and he’s got a good chance to lead the Noles to their first CFB playoff berth. Travis has thrown for 2,469 yards, with 19 touchdowns to two interceptions, and he’s rushed for 190 yards and seven scores thru nine starts.

• Trey Benson ripped off a game-swinging touchdown run in the win over Pitt, and he leads the Noles in rushing with 641 yards and eight touchdowns.

• Junior wideout Keon Coleman missed last week’s contest, but there’s a chance he returns for this battle with Miami, and he leads FSU in receptions (38), receiving yards (538), and touchdowns catches (9) after a big game against LSU.

• The FSU defense has allowed 17.0 points per game.

Miami (FL) vs Florida State Trends

• Miami is 4-5 against the spread, with a 5-4 O/U record.

• FSU is 5-3 ATS, with a 5-3 over/under record.

Corey’s Free Pick

Miami is coming up to Tallahassee in bad shape, and Florida State has a chance to make a real statement here with the CFB playoffs within reach. The Seminoles have passed every test this season, and they’ve won each of their past five games by more than the margin. Yes, it’s possible the Canes come to play and get up for this matchup, but they’ve looked disappointing since an embarrassing loss to Georgia Tech at home, and they can’t be trusted right now. Back Florida State to remain undefeated here with a sizeable win over Miami.