Duke at North Carolina Prediction - College Football Picks 11/11/23

North Carolina Tar Heels (7-2) vs Duke Blue Devils (6-3)

Game Info: Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 8:00 pm (Kenan Memorial Stadium)

Betting Odds: North Carolina Tar Heels -13.5 -- Over/Under: 51 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Duke Blue Devils will head down Tobacco Road to meet the North Carolina Tar Heels in ACC play this weekend from Kenan Stadium on the ACC Network. 

Duke Blue Devils Preview 

Duke enters at 6-3 after defeating Wake Forest in Durham, 24-3. The Blue Devils rallied in the fourth to knock off the Demon Deacons, and they’ll now long to hang a third loss on the Tar Heels this weekend. The Duke offense is scoring 25.7 ppg, while passing for 189.5 ypg, rushing for 198.5 ypg, and converting 39.1% of their third downs.

Duke Player Notes

Henry Berlin IV replaced Riley Leonard behind center last week, and he wasn’t asked to do much, but he managed to toss a pair of touchdown passes while going just 4/12. If Leonard is unable to go, this might be a really intimidating spot for the freshman QB.

Senior back Jordan Waters has scored in all six games, and after going for a season-high 123 yards in the in-state win over the Wolfpack, he leads the Blue Devils in rushing yards (426).

Veteran wideout Jalon Calhoun scored on a 69-yard bomb in last weekend’s win, and he’s now first on the team with 368 yards on 24 catches.

Junior receiver Jordan Moore leads Duke in receptions (25), with 322 receiving yards.

The Duke defense has allowed 9.8 ppg. 


North Carolina Tar Heels Preview 

North Carolina improved to 7-2 after blowing out Campbell at home, 59-7. The Tar Heels put a pair of bad losses behind them with a massive homecoming victory, and they’ll look to down their arch rivals here. The UNC offense is scoring 25.0 ppg, while passing for 159.4 ypg, rushing for 192.7 ypg, and converting 38.7% of their third downs.

UNC Player Notes

Drake Maye had another flawless outing last week against Campbell, passing for 244 yards and four scores. The Huntersville native nearly had the Heels in the CFB playoff picture, but a pair of losses to UVA and GT have altered those aspirations. Maye has passed for 2.803 yards, with 20 touchdowns to five interceptions. 

Sophomore back Omarion Hampton scored multiple touchdowns for the second game in a row, and he leads the team in rushing with 1,067 yards on 175 touches.

Junior wideout J.J. Jones scored last weekend, and he leads UNC in receptions (31) and receiving yards (499).

The UNC defense is allowing 23.3 points per game.


Duke vs North Carolina Trends

Duke is 4-5 against the spread, with a 5-4 O/U record. 

UNC is 5-3 ATS, with a 4-3-1 over/under record.

Corey’s Free Pick

This rivalry has extensive history on the court, but both schools have made strides on the gridiron in recent years under Mack Brown and Mike Bobo. The turnarounds at both programs have been admirable, and if Riley Leonard were available, this had classic potential. Even without Leonard, Duke should come to play, but trusting them to match UNC’s energy on the road with their QB3 might not be the way to go. The Blue Devils are hard-nosed enough to stick around, so let’s target the low magic number for this year’s Tobacco Road matchup.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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