Baylor vs Kansas State Prediction - College Football Picks 11/11/23

Kansas State Wildcats (6-3) vs Baylor Bears (3-6)

Game Info: Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 3:00 pm (Bill Snyder Family Stadium)

Betting Odds: Kansas State Wildcats -21.5 -- Over/Under: 55.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Baylor Bears will play the Kansas State Wildcats in a Big 12 game on Saturday afternoon at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas. Baylor has lost three of their last four games, while Kansas State has won three of their last four games. 

Baylor Preview

The Baylor Bears are 3-6 (2-4) this year after they lost to Houston by a score of 25-24 in overtime last week. Baylor scored with 30 seconds left in the game to force overtime, but Houston was able to win in overtime on a two point conversion. The Bears out gained Houston by a total of 413-366 and they forced two turnovers in the game. Baylor’s two conference wins have come against Cincinnati and UCF. The Baylor offense is scoring 22.7 points per game with 277.2 passing yards per game and 114 rushing yards per game, while going 38.1% on third downs. Blake Shapen has thrown for 1,738 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions for the Bears this season. Dominic Richardson has rushed for 339 yards, while Monaray Baldwin has caught 34 passes for 586 yards and three scores. The Baylor defense is giving up 29.4 points against per game this season.

Kansas State Preview

The Kansas State Wildcats are 6-3 (4-2) this season after they lost to Texas in overtime by a score of 33-30 in their last game. Kansas State trailed 27-7 in the third quarter, but they came back to force overtime. Texas scored a field goal on the first possession, but Kansas State went for it on fourth down and was stopped for the loss. The Wildcats were out gained by a total of 478-370, but did force three turnovers in the game. Prior to that loss, Kansas State had won three games in a row against Houston, TCU, and Texas Tech. The Kansas State offense is averaging 38.6 points per game with 248.4 passing yards per game and 205.7 rushing yards per game, while going 50.8% on third downs. Will Howard has thrown for 1,955 yards, 18 touchdowns, and eight interceptions for the Wildcats this season. DJ Giddens has rushed for 744 yards and seven scores, while Phillip Brooks has caught 44 passes for 513 yards and five touchdowns. The Kansas State defense is allowing 17.8 points against per game this year.

Kansas State Wildcats Team Facts

  • Kansas State has won each of its last six games at Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
  • Kansas State has covered the spread in each of its last eight games as a home favorite.
  • Kansas State has won the first quarter in three of its last four home games against conference opponents.
  • Kansas State has won the first half in each of its last four games against conference opponents at Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
  • Each of Kansas State's last five home games against Baylor have gone UNDER the total points line.

Baylor Bears Team Facts

  • Baylor has won five of its last six games as a road underdog.
  • The road team has covered the spread in eight of Baylor's last nine games.
  • Each of Baylor's last six games as a road underdog have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Kansas State are one of only 27 FBS teams undefeated in home games this season ([z-0]).
  • Kansas State has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 10 points or less of any FBS team this season (3).

Pick

Both of these teams are coming off of disappointing overtime losses last week and will look to get back on the winning track here. Kansas State made a ton of mistakes in their loss to Texas, but they are still one of the better teams in the Big 12. Baylor has had a rough season and has only managed to defeat Cincinnati and UCF in conference play. Kansas State has been able to beat up on the bottom of the Big 12 and I like them to win big here. 

David’s Pick Kansas State -21.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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