USF at Memphis Prediction - College Football Picks 11/4/23

Memphis Tigers (6-2) vs USF Bulls (4-4)

Game Info: Saturday, November 4, 2023 at 3:00 pm (Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium)

Betting Odds: Memphis Tigers -13.5 -- Over/Under: 68.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Memphis Tigers will host the South Florida Bulls for an AAC matchup this weekend from Liberty Stadium on ESPN+. Memphis and USF have faced off eleven times since 2001, and the Tigers hold the head-to-head lead, 7-4, after winning the last two meetings.

South Florida Bulls Preview

South Florida moved to 4-4 after defeating UConn in Hartford by three, 24-21. The Bulls used a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns to avoid falling to the Huskies, and they’ll look to get back to .500 here in Grind City. The USF offense is scoring 28.0 ppg, while passing for 246.6 ypg, rushing for 191.4 ypg, and converting 39.3% of their third downs.

USF Player Notes

Byrum Brown did just enough to beat UConn last time out, going 27/39 for 203 yards with an interception, and rushing for 61 yards and a score. The freshman quarterback cooled off in the two games prior to the bye week, and he’ll have to be a bit sharper here against Memphis. Brown has thrown for 1,865 yards, with 12 touchdowns to four interceptions, and he’s rushed for 573 yards and eight scores on the ground thru eight starts.

• Florida transfer Nay’Quan Wright carried the load with a season-high 186 yards and two scores in the win over UConn, and he leads the backfield in rushing with 594 yards on 116 carries.

• Junior wideout Sean Atkins scored multiple touchdowns in the win over Navy, and he leads USF in catches (51), with 550 receiving yards.

• The USF defense has allowed 34.2 points per game.


Memphis Tigers Preview

Memphis comes in at 6-2 after defeating North Texas in Denton by three, 45-42. The Tigers found themselves in a shootout with the Mean Green, and after escaping with a last second touchdown, they’ll look to win a third straight game this weekend. The Memphis offense is scoring 36.8 ppg, while passing for 274.4 ypg, rushing for 164.8 ypg, and converting 41.7% of their third downs.

Memphis Player Notes

Seth Henigan played well against North Texas, going 22/28 for 330 yards and a score. The junior QB has bounced back from a tough loss to Tulane with two winning efforts, and he’s got a good chance to thrive against a vulnerable USF defense. Henigan has passed for 2,186 yards with 16 touchdowns to seven interceptions through eight contests.

• ODU transfer Blake Watson matched his season-high with 169 yards in the win over North Texas, and he leads Memphis in rushing yards (762), with 348 receiving yards and ten touchdowns.

• Junior wideout Roc Taylor was quiet in the two road wins over UAB and UNT, but he leads the Tigers in receptions (42) and receiving yards (593).

• The Memphis defense has allowed 25.1 points per game.


USF vs Memphis Trends

USF is 4-4 against the spread, with a 4-4 O/U record. 

Memphis is 2-4-1 ATS, with a 5-2 over/under record.

Corey’s Free Pick

Memphis has responded well to their loss to Tulane, and after winning a pair of games on the road, I think they’ll keep rolling here against South Florida. USF’s undisciplined nature has got them in trouble all season, and after allowing 29 points or more in four of their last five contests, while nearly losing to UConn, they might struggle here against a stronger Memphis team. Now with the magic number sitting a bit high, the Under may be the route to go versus trusting the Tigers to lay the two-score margin that will likely be pushed on gameday, as five of their last six have been decided by ten points or less. Don't shy away from Memphis here though, as there's little chance of an upset.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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