UNLV vs New Mexico Prediction - College Football Picks 11/4/23

New Mexico Lobos (3-5) vs UNLV Rebels (6-2)

Game Info: Saturday, November 4, 2023 at 6:00 pm (University Stadium)

Betting Odds: New Mexico Lobos +9.5 -- Over/Under: 60.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The UNLV Rebels will play the New Mexico Lobos in a Mountain West game on Saturday night at University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico. UNLV lost their first conference game of the year last week, while New Mexico has lost three of their last four games. 

UNLV Preview

The UNLV Rebels are 6-2 (3-1) this season after they lost to Fresno State by a score of 31-24 last week. UNLV led 17-7 at halftime, but they allowed 24 points in the third quarter in the loss. The Rebels out gained Fresno State by a total of 424-312, but they turned the ball over four times in the game. UNLV had won five games in a row against Vanderbilt, Hawaii, UTEP, Nevada, and Colorado State prior to the loss. The UNLV offense is scoring 34.3 points per game with 222.8 passing yards per game and 202.9 rushing yards per game, while going 52.6% on third downs. Jayden Maiava has thrown for 1,581 yards, seven touchdowns, and four interceptions for the Rebels this season. Vincent Davis Jr. has rushed for 456 yards and two touchdowns, while Ricky White has caught 46 passes for 711 yards and four scores. The UNLV defense is allowing 26.9 points against per game this season. 

New Mexico Preview

The New Mexico Lobos are 3-5 (1-3) this year after they lost to Nevada by a score of 34-24 in their last game. New Mexico trailed 24-0 at halftime, but they did score 24 points in the second half in the failed comeback attempt. The Lobos out gained Nevada by a total of 400-311, but did turn the ball over three times in the game. New Mexico did defeat Hawaii in the game prior to Nevada. The New Mexico offense is averaging 32.1 points per game with 229.3 passing yards per game and 167.6 rushing yards per game, while going 40.9% on third downs. Dylan Hopkins has thrown for 1,638 yards, 11 touchdowns, and seven interceptions for the Lobos this season. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has rushed for 589 yards and 12 scores, while Jeremiah Hixon has caught 26 passes for 336 yards and five touchdowns. The New Mexico defense is giving up 32.8 points against per game this year. 

New Mexico Lobos Team Facts

  • New Mexico has lost each of its last 22 November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in each of its last 10 games in November.
  • New Mexico has lost the first half in 29 of its last 38 games against conference opponents.
  • Each of New Mexico's last six games against conference opponents at University Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

UNLV Rebels Team Facts

  • UNLV has lost six of its last nine November games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • UNLV has covered the spread in each of its last four road games.
  • UNLV has won the first half in each of its last three road games against conference opponents.
  • Each of UNLV's last three games at University Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • UNLV has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (2).

Pick

UNLV suffered their first conference loss of the season last week, but they played pretty well against a good Fresno State team. New Mexico only has one conference win on the year and their defense has allowed 34, 21, 52, and 35 points in their last four games. UNLV has scored 24, 25, 45, 44, and 45 points in their last five games, so they should find success here. New Mexico just isn’t very good this season and I really don’t have much faith in their defense. Take UNLV here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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