Kentucky at Mississippi State Prediction - College Football Picks 11/4/23

Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-4) vs Kentucky Wildcats (5-3)

Game Info: Saturday, November 4, 2023 at 7:30 pm (Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field)

Betting Odds: Mississippi State Bulldogs +5 -- Over/Under: 45.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Kentucky Wildcats will travel to StarkVegas to meet the Mississippi State Bulldogs in SEC play this weekend from Davis Wade Stadium on ESPN. Kentucky and Mississippi State have met in every season since 1990, and the all-time series is split, 25-25. 

Kentucky Wildcats Preview

Kentucky fell to 5-3 after losing to Tennessee in Lexington, 33-27. The Wildcats had their rally cut short by the Vols, and they’ll look to avoid a fourth straight loss this weekend. The UK offense is scoring 30.8 ppg, while passing for 218.6 ypg, rushing for 144.8 ypg, and converting 39% of their third downs.

Kentucky Player Notes

Devin Leary had his best game of the season against Tennessee despite the final result, going 28/39 for a season-high 372 yards and a pair of scores. The former N.C. State QB still hasn’t been able to deliver winning results against strong competition, but he’ll face somewhat of a light spot here in Starkville. Leary has passed for 1,749 yards with 16 touchdowns to seven interceptions this season.

• Senior back Ray Davis found the endzone versus the Vols, and he leads the Wildcats in rushing yards (823), with 14 total touchdowns (9 rush, 5 rec).

• Lexington native Dane Key had his first 100-yard game of the season, and he now leads UK in receiving yards with 338 on 24 catches

The UK defense has allowed 24.5 points per game.


Mississippi State Bulldogs Preview

Mississippi State dropped to 4-4 after losing to Auburn on the road, 27-13.  The Bulldogs weren’t able to overcome an energized Tigers team on homecoming, and they’ll attempt to regroup here at home. The Mississippi State offense is scoring 25.1 ppg, while passing for 197.8 ypg, rushing for 152.6 ypg, and converting 30.9% of their third downs.

Mississippi State Player Notes

Mike Wright started in place of Will Rogers last weekend, and he struggled by going 16/32 for 161 yards with a touchdown toss and a pick. The former Vandy QB doesn’t bring the same threat behind center as Rogers, and he may have another tough evening when UK comes to town. Wright has passed for 307 yards with three touchdowns to two interceptions through four games.

• Veteran back Jo’Quavious Marks picked up an injury in the nasty 7-3 win over Arkansas, and Wright leads the team with 261 yards rushing and three scores.  

• Senior wideout Lideatrick Griffin has a quiet month of October, but he still leads State in receptions (35) and receiving yards (512).

• The Mississippi State defense is allowing 25.8 points per game.


Kentucky vs Mississippi State Trends

UK is 4-4 against the spread, with a 6-2 O/U record. 

State is 2-6 ATS, with a 4-3-1 over/under record.

Corey’s Free Pick

Along with Arkansas and Auburn, this season has been a sign of things to come for this tier of SEC schools, as the pending arrivals of Texas and Oklahoma will only crowd things at the top. You have to feel for the Mississippi State program, as they’ve gone through a lot since losing Mike Leach, and their longtime quarterback Will Rogers has dealt with injury issues. If the three-year starter is unable to go, it’ll be hard to look away from a Kentucky team looking to avoid a fourth straight loss. UK should be able to contain a familiar face in wMike Wright well, just as they did when he was at Vandy, and this one should come down to a matter of how much. Let’s Kentucky to stop the bleeding here in this SEC battle. 

Corey’s Pick Kentucky to Cover

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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