Houston vs Baylor Prediction - College Football Picks 11/4/23

Baylor Bears (3-5) vs Houston Cougars (3-5)

Game Info: Saturday, November 4, 2023 at 3:30 pm (McLane Stadium)

Betting Odds: Baylor Bears -3 -- Over/Under: 57.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Houston Cougars will play the Baylor Bears in a Big 12 game on Saturday afternoon at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas. Houston has lost three of their last four games, while Baylor has alternated wins and losses over their last five games. 

Houston Preview

The Houston Cougars are 3-5 (1-4) this season after they lost to Kansas State by a score of 41-0 in their last game. Houston trailed 28-0 at the half and it didn’t get any better in the second half, as they couldn’t find any points. The Cougars were out gained by a total of 394-208 and they turned the ball over two times in the loss. Houston’s one conference win came against West Virginia three games ago by a score of 41-39. The Houston offense is scoring 25.3 points per game with 266.5 passing yards per game and 116.4 rushing yards per game, while going 40.2% on third downs. Donovan Smith has thrown for 2,067 yards, 16 touchdowns, and five interceptions for the Cougars this season. Parker Jenkins has rushed for 321 yards and three touchdowns, while Samuel Brown has caught 45 passes for 678 yards and two scores. The Houston defense is allowing 32.5 points against per game this season.

Baylor Preview

The Baylor Bears are 3-5 (2-3) this year after they lost to Iowa State by a score of 30-18 last week. Baylor trailed 17-6 at halftime and quickly fell behind 27-6 in the third quarter for the loss. The Bears were out gained by a total of 400-306 and both teams turned the ball over two times. Baylor’s two conference wins came against Cincinnati and UCF by a combined four points. The Baylor offense is averaging 22.5 points per game with 279 passing yards per game and 109.5 rushing yards per game, while going 37.2% on third downs. Blake Shapen has thrown for 1,475 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception for the Bears this year. Dominic Richardson has rushed for 288 yards, while Monaray Baldwin has caught 30 passes for 570 yards and three scores. The Baylor defense is giving up 30 points against per game this year.

Baylor Bears Team Facts

  • Baylor has lost seven of its last eight home games.
  • Baylor has failed to cover the spread in each of its last eight home games.
  • Baylor has lost the first half in four of its last five home games against conference opponents.
  • Each of Baylor's last four home games in November have gone UNDER the total points line.

Houston Cougars Team Facts

  • Houston has won five of its last six November road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Houston has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five road games.
  • Houston has lost the first half in three of its last four road games against conference opponents.
  • Seven of Houston's last nine road games have gone OVER the total points line.

Pick

Both of these teams have really struggled this season, especially in Big 12 play, but Baylor will have the home field advantage here. Houston lost 41-0 last week, just one week after almost upsetting Texas. Baylor has played poorly in three straight games, but they were lucky they played an even worse Cincinnati team to get a win in that span. Both of these teams are allowing at least 30 points per game on defense, so I think we are going to see plenty of scoring in this one. Take the over here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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