USC vs California Prediction - College Football Picks 10/28/23

California Golden Bears (3-4) vs USC Trojans (6-2)

Game Info: Saturday, October 28, 2023 at 4:00 pm (FTX Field at California Memorial Stadium)

Betting Odds: California Golden Bears +10.5 -- Over/Under: 66.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The USC Trojans and California Golden Bears face off on Saturday in a college football showdown at California Memorial Stadium

USC Has Some Clear Issues

USC comes into this game with a 6-2 record overall, but they have lost two games straight. In the last game against Utah, they were able to outscore them 15-6 in the 4th quarter, but it wasn’t enough as they were defeated. Caleb Williams completed 24 of his 34 passes for 256 yards. After the two losses, Williams is probably out of the Heisman running, and there have been rumblings if he will even finish this season. USC overall is averaging 45.4 points while their defense is giving up 30.5 points per game.

USC Betting Trends

USC has won each of its last 16 games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
The team ranked 24th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games.
Thirteen of USC's last 14 games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.

Cal Defense is Struggling

Cal comes into this game with a 3-4 record overall but they have lost two games in a row. The defense has been an issue heading into this game and two games ago against Oregon State they lost 52-40. In the last game against Utah, the offense scored 14 points while the defense gave up 34 points. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza completed 10 of his 17 passes for 149 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. California is averaging 29.8 points while their defense is giving up 31.1 points per game.

Cal Betting Trends

California has lost each of its last 12 games as an underdog.
California has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against conference opponents.
Five of California's last six games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Shane’s Free Pick

USC has struggled heading into this game, but I don’t think they are going to give up on this season. Caleb Williams is going to have no issue throwing the ball all over the field against the Cal defense and that is going to be the difference. USC is going to go over 45 points and that will be enough points where even if the defense struggles a bit, they will still do enough to cover the spread. Back USC against the spread.