UNLV vs Fresno State Prediction - College Football Picks 10/28/23

Fresno State Bulldogs (6-1) vs UNLV Rebels (6-1)

Game Info: Saturday, October 28, 2023 at 10:30 pm (Valley Children's Stadium)

Betting Odds: Fresno State Bulldogs -7.5 -- Over/Under: 57.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The UNLV Rebels will play the Fresno State Bulldogs in a Mountain West game on Saturday night at Bulldog Stadium in Fresno, California. UNLV comes into this matchup undefeated in conference play, while Fresno State only has one conference loss. 

UNLV Preview

The UNLV Rebels are 6-1 (3-0) this season after they defeated Colorado State by a score of 25-23 in their last game. UNLV trailed 13-3 at the half and they had a crazy fourth quarter, but they managed to kick the winning field goal with three seconds left. The Rebels out gained Colorado State by a total of 491-372 and both teams turned the ball over one time in the game. UNLV has won five games in a row against Colorado State, Nevada, Hawaii, UTEP, and Vanderbilt. The UNLV offense is scoring 35.7 points per game with 216.3 passing yards per game and 209.6 rushing yards per game, while going 53% on third downs. Jayden Maiava has thrown for 1,313 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions for the Rebels this season. Vincent Davis Jr. has rushed for 388 yards and two touchdowns, while Ricky White has caught 39 passes for 559 yards and two scores. The UNLV defense is giving up 26.3 points against per game this year. 

Fresno State Preview

The Fresno State Bulldogs are 6-1 (2-1) this year after they defeated Utah State by a score of 37-32 in their last game. Fresno State trailed 17-14 early in the third quarter, but they were able to get the go ahead touchdown with about two minutes left for the win. The Bulldogs were out gained by a total of 568-461 and forced two turnovers in the win. Fresno State’s lone loss came on the road against Wyoming, but they have had some nice wins over Purdue and Arizona State. The Fresno State offense is averaging 34 points per game with 302.9 passing yards per game and 112.9 rushing yards per game, while going 50.9% on third downs. Mikey Keene (questionable) has thrown for 1,692 yards, 15 touchdowns, and four interceptions for the Bulldogs this year. Malik Sherrod has rushed for 432 yards and five scores, while Erik Brooks has caught 39 passes for 551 yards and four touchdowns. The Fresno State defense is allowing 20.1 points against per game this season.

Fresno State Bulldogs Team Facts

  • Fresno State has won 15 of its last 16 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Fresno State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four October games as a home favorite.
  • Fresno State has won the first quarter in each of its last three games against conference opponents at Valley Children's Stadium.
  • Fresno State has won the first half in each of its last three games against conference opponents at Valley Children's Stadium.
  • Each of Fresno State's last four games as a favorite against UNLV have gone OVER the total points line.

UNLV Rebels Team Facts

  • UNLV has lost each of its last 11 October games as an underdog.
  • UNLV has covered the spread in each of its last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Four of UNLV's last five games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Fresno State rank 38th among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (20.1).
  • UNLV has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (2).

Pick

UNLV comes into this game with an undefeated conference record, and only one loss overall, but they were lucky to come away with a win over Colorado State. Fresno State dropped a tough game to Wyoming on the road, but they have looked very good in almost every other game. The UNLV defense is not good and they are allowing over 400 total yards per game. I do think Fresno State gets the win in this game, but I think this is too many points. UNLV should be able to move the ball and keep this game close. Take the Rebels here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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