Tennessee at Kentucky Prediction - College Football Picks 10/28/23

Kentucky Wildcats (5-2) vs Tennessee Volunteers (5-2)

Game Info: Saturday, October 28, 2023 at 7:00 pm (Kroger Field)

Betting Odds: Kentucky Wildcats +4.5 -- Over/Under: 54.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Tennessee Volunteers will cross the state line and head down to Lexington to meet the Kentucky Wildcats in SEC play this weekend from Kroger Field. Kentucky and Tennessee form one of the oldest rivalries in the conference, facing off in nearly every season since 1906. Tennessee holds a lopsided series lead of, 82-26-9, after winning last year’s meeting in Knoxville, 44-6. 

Tennessee Volunteers Preview

Tennessee comes in at 5-2 after losing to Alabama in Tuscaloosa, 34-20. The Volunteers blew a two-score halftime lead to the Tide, and they’ll look to pick up their first road win of the season on Saturday. The Tennessee offense is scoring 31.6ppg, while passing for 220.9 ypg, rushing for 217.3 ypg, and converting 42.7% of their third downs.

Tennessee Player Notes

Joe Milton III played well in the first half against Alabama, going 28/41 for 271 yards and two scores. The senior quarterback hasn’t delivered winning results thru two road games, but he’s been competent, and should find more production here in the Bluegrass. Milton has thrown 1,535 yards, with 12 touchdowns to three interceptions, and he’s rushed for 232 yards and four scores thru seven starts.  

Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small split the load for the Vols. Wright leads the way with rushing yards (593), after gaining 136 yards in the win over A&M. Small is second on the team with 383 yards on 42 touches. 

• Sophomore wideout Squirrel White had a big game against Bama with season-highs of ten catches and 111 yards, and he leads Tennessee in receptions (39) and receiving yards (416).

• The Tennessee defense is allowing 19.4 points per game.


Kentucky Wildcats Preview

Kentucky fell to 5-2 after losing to Missouri in Lexington, 38-21. The Wildcats were blown away in the fourth quarter by the Tigers, and they’ll attempt to bounce back here against the Vols. The UK offense is scoring 31.3 ppg, while passing for 196.7 ypg, rushing for 155.1 ypg, and converting 38% of their third downs.

Kentucky Player Notes

Devin Leary struggled to push the ball again last week against Mizzou, only going 14/27 for 120 yards, with two touchdowns to two interceptions. The former N.C. State QB hasn’t found the same success here in the SEC, and he’ll have to step up if UK wants to avoid a third straight loss. Leary has passed for 1,377 yards with 14 touchdowns to seven interceptions this season.

• Senior back Ray Davis dashed for 128 yards in the loss to Missouri, and he leads Kentucky in rushing yards (781), with 13 total touchdowns (8 rush, 5 rec).

Tayvion Robinson has been quiet over the past three games, but he leads UK in receptions (23) and receiving yards (338). 

• The UK defense has allowed 23.5 points per game.


Tennessee vs Kentucky Trends

TENN is 3-4 against the spread, with a 2-5 O/U record. 

UK is 4-3 ATS, with a 5-2 over/under record.

Corey’s Free Pick

Both bordering states will be looking to bounce back here in the Bluegrass this weekend, and it’s hard to trust Kentucky right now after what we’ve seen from them this month. Devin Leary has been turnover prone here in SEC play, and if he struggles again, the Vols will have a chance to get back into the win column here. The margin could be sneaky, so while I like Tennessee taking this one the road, take the Under, as this primetime game could come down to a matter of stops.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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